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AGUS76 KRSA 151939

HMDRSA



Hydrometeorological Discussion

National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA

1240 PM PDT Fri Mar 15 2024



...UPPER LOW TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS INTO 

EARLY NEXT WEEK..



.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SHORT TERM: FRI PM - MON AM)...



An upper low over srn CA/w AZ continues to generate scattered 

showers this afternoon. Lightning detection picking up thunderstorm 

activity over AZ as well while an upper ridge remains entrenched 

over the eastern Pacific. Not much has changed forecast wise since 

this morning. The current pattern will remain more or less in place, 

though shifting a bit east into the weekend. This will stretch high 

pressure across the PacNW into nrn CA/NV while low pressure centers 

over AZ. This will keep the possibility of scattered showers and 

isolated thunderstorms over seCA and srn NV the rest of the near 

term. Above normal temperatures under high pressure and below normal 

temperatures under the low are also expected. Precip amounts still a 

bit uncertain due to the convective nature of the precip. Generally 

expecting 0.10-0.25" with locally higher amounts under heavier cells 

or developing thunderstorms and closer to 0.50-1"+ over terrain 

areas. Freezing levels 5-7 kft over precip areas through much of 

Saturday rising to 6.5-8 kft Sunday before reaching 8+ kft at the 

end of the period.





.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (LONG TERM: MON AM - THU AM)...



The persistent upr low sitting in the vicinity of the lower Colorado 

River basin since the weekend will finally begin to move downstream 

and weaken on Monday into Tuesday...while an upr ridge extending 

from northern CA and northern NV northward into western Canada 

nudges slightly to the east as general upr troffing sets up over the 

northeast Pacific and rotates a series of disturbances toward the 

west coast for the latter half of the week. Look for some scattered 

showers close to the upr low across southern NV and southern 

CA...while on Wednesday there will be some showers closer to the 

CA/OR border as the pattern transitions. Freezing levels will be 

from 8000- to 10000-feet on Monday and Tuesday...dropping slightly 

over areas near and north of I-80 from 5500- to 7500-feet as heights 

begin to fall with the upr troffing over the northeast Pacific and 

the upr ridging moves slightly downstream.





QPF graphics are available at www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/qpf.php







AS/Kozlowski



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