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AGUS74 KWCO 161516

HMDNWC



National Hydrologic Discussion - EXPERIMENTAL

NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa AL

1016 AM CDT SAT MAR 16 2024



.Synopsis...

Isolated flooding impacts possible in Southeast Texas Saturday and across  

the Gulf Coast States on Sunday...



.Discussion...



.Southeast Texas...

Isolated flash and urban flooding impacts will be possible day 1 (Sat) as  

periods of heavy rainfall (1 - 2" totals) progress through the region. The  

greatest potential for flooding impacts will likely be from San Antonio to  

Houston along I-10, especially just southwest of Houston (San Bernard,  

Lower Brazos, Lower Colorado basins) where top-layer soils are wet (0 - 10  

cm RSM 75%, NASA SPoRT) and streamflows are near normal (USGS) in response  

to 2 - 6" of rain over the past 24 hours (MRMS). Much of the surrounding  

region has been relatively dry over the past 30 days (1 - 4" precipitation  

negative departures from normal, RFC QPE), which in turn continues the the  

below normal-to-normal streamflows in place (USGS) and mitigates some of  

the small stream flooding threat across the region. Nonetheless, isolated  

minor-to-moderate river flooding will be possible across basins draining  

the central/eastern TX coast and across eastern TX beginning this weekend  

and continuing into early next week (SR QPF Ensembles).



.Gulf Coast States...

Isolated flash and urban flooding impacts will be possible along the  

immediate Gulf Coast on day 2 (Sun) as periods of heavy rainfall progress  

across the region. Any new flooding impacts will be completely dependent on  

the location of repeated heavy rainfall.



Rainfall on day 2 (Sun) may delay recessions on some rivers where there is  

ongoing minor-to-moderate (southeast GA) river flooding, which will persist  

through early next week.



//JEC



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