####018006315#### AGUS73 KMSR 171520 HMDMSR Hydrometeorological Forecast Discussion NWS North Central River Forecast Center Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1019 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 River forecasts routinely incorporate 24 hours of QPF from April 1 to September 30 and 48 hours from October 1 to March 31. See http://www.weather.gov/ncrfc/LMI_QPF_NcrfcCurrentQpf ...Forecast Activity... RVF forecasts issued today. Issue times are in UTC. Subtract 6 hrs for CST, 5 hrs for CDT/EST, 4 hrs for EDT. RVF Forecast Group description Issue Time GND Grand, Muskegon/White Basins, MI 2024-03-17 13:37 UTC ILO Mainstem Illinois R 2024-03-17 14:27 UTC KSJ Kalamazoo/St Joseph Bsns-MI & IN 2024-03-17 13:38 UTC M10 Miss. R - Lake City, MN-L&D 10 2024-03-17 13:38 UTC M19 Miss. R - L&D 11-Gregory Landing 2024-03-17 14:50 UTC MIS Miss. R - L&D 20 to Chester, IL 2024-03-17 15:08 UTC NLM Northern Lower Michigan rivers 2024-03-17 13:39 UTC RDW Mississippi R abv Red Wing, MN 2024-03-17 13:34 UTC SMW Saginaw Basin in MI 2024-03-17 13:39 UTC ===================================================================== No forecast points in the NCRFC forecast area are forecast to rise above Flood Stage. Sites with forecasts below flood stage but above a user-defined threshold (FS=Flood Stage): MAX RVF NWSLI Station name/river FS FCST GND MRPM4 Maple Rapids - Maple R 9.0 7.4 ILO HAVI2 Havana - Illinois R 14.0 13.6 ILO BEAI2 Beardstown - Illinois R 14.0 13.5 KSJ NILM4 Niles - WWTP - St Joseph R 11.0 7.0 ===================================================================== ...Past Precipitation... Observation times are in UTC. Subtract 6 hrs for CST, 5 hrs for CDT/EST, 4 hrs for EDT. ===================================================================== Top daily precipitation reports greater than zero from Iowa: LID OBTIME/SHEF VALUE NAME / DETAIL STATE FOD DH1156/PPDRZ 0.001 : Fort Dodge Muni Arpt IA IAFY03 DH1312/PPDRZ 0.001 : Waucoma 3S IA Top daily precipitation reports greater than zero from Illinois: LID OBTIME/SHEF VALUE NAME / DETAIL STATE ILWL178 DH1200/PPDRZ 0.01 : Mokena 2SW IL ILKD126 DH1100/PPDRZ 0.001 : Oswego 1ESE IL ILX DH1200/PPDRZ 0.001 : Lincoln - Cntrl Il WFO IL ILSC26 DH1100/PPDRZ 0.001 : Mascoutah 2SSE IL Top daily precipitation reports greater than zero from Indiana: LID OBTIME/SHEF VALUE NAME / DETAIL STATE INSN37 DH1200/PPDRZ 0.03 : Angola 9ESE IN INSN12 DH1136/PPDRZ 0.02 : Hudson IN INEL80 DH1100/PPDRZ 0.01 : Goshen 5N IN INEL36 DH1200/PPDRZ 0.001 : Elkhart 5SW IN INEL48 DH1100/PPDRZ 0.001 : Goshen 1SSE IN Top daily precipitation reports greater than zero from Michigan: LID OBTIME/SHEF VALUE NAME / DETAIL STATE SLNM4 DH1200/PPDRZ 0.80 : Saline 4SW MI HERM4 DH1200/PPDRZ 0.31 : Herman MI MIHL13 DH1230/PPDRZ 0.26 : Osseo 3NE MI YIP DH1153/PPDRZ 0.25 : Detroit - Willow Run Arpt MI WYTM4 DH1200/PPDRZ 0.24 : Wyandotte MI Top daily precipitation reports greater than zero from Minnesota: LID OBTIME/SHEF VALUE NAME / DETAIL STATE MNBM15 DH1400/PPDRZ 0.20 : Bemidji 8ENE MN TOWM5 DH1230/PPDRZ 0.05 : Tower 2S MN MNSL198 DH1200/PPDRZ 0.04 : Ely 6SSW MN MNSL175 DH1330/PPDRZ 0.03 : Duluth 5NE MN MNCN23 DH1200/PPDRZ 0.02 : Holyoke 3ENE MN No measureable precipitation reported within the NCRFC area of Missouri during the last 24 hours. Top daily precipitation reports greater than zero from North Dakota: LID OBTIME/SHEF VALUE NAME / DETAIL STATE NDCS25 DH1300/PPDRZ 0.01 : Fargo 2N ND NDCS01 DH1200/PPDRZ 0.001 : West Fargo 4SSE ND LFDN8 DH1000/PPDRZ 0.001 : Lansford ND NDCS68 DH1330/PPDRZ 0.001 : Fargo 7S ND NDBT11 DH1400/PPDRZ 0.001 : Bottineau 6ENE ND Top daily precipitation reports greater than zero from South Dakota: LID OBTIME/SHEF VALUE NAME / DETAIL STATE SDRB01 DH1200/PPDRZ 0.01 : Sisseton 4W SD SDRB04 DH1200/PPDRZ 0.01 : Sisseton 10ENE SD 8D3 DH1156/PPDRZ 0.01 : Sisseton Muni Arpt SD SDGT09 DH1100/PPDRZ 0.001 : LaBolt SD MLBS2 DH1230/PPDRZ 0.001 : Milbank WWTP SD Top daily precipitation reports greater than zero from Wisconsin: LID OBTIME/SHEF VALUE NAME / DETAIL STATE WIPR02 DH1130/PPDRZ 0.20 : Butternut 6SW WI HURW3 DH1300/PPDRZ 0.13 : Hurley 2N WI WIBY15 DH1300/PPDRZ 0.07 : Bayfield 2SW WI WIBY22 DH1300/PPDRZ 0.06 : Mason 12WNW WI WIBY38 DH1130/PPDRZ 0.05 : Iron River 5ESE WI ===================================================================== See http://www.weather.gov/ncrfc/LMI_QCPCPN for all reports. For additional and more in-depth information concerning river forecasts, precipitation and all hydrometeorological information in the NCRFC area of responsibility, please refer to the NCRFC web page at: http://www.weather.gov/ncrfc $$ ####018003583#### AGUS76 KRSA 171521 HMDRSA Hydrometeorological Discussion National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA 830 AM PDT Sun Mar 17 2024 ...UPPER LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY MAINLY OVER SRN SIERRA AND SRN CA AND SRN NV... ...PRECIP POSSIBLE OVER SRN OR AND NRN CA LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY... .METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SUN AM - SAT AM)... Pattern remains about the same with High pressure ridge over B.C. and Pac NW and into Nrn CA and Nrn NV with an upper low meandering around CA/NV/ AZ border today into Monday. The upper low has shifted a little farther east over Arizona with wrap around showers over Srn NV and SE Ca this morning then weakens and retreats back west towards CA/NV/AZ border on Monday. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to wrap around the low bringing some precip to the Srn Sierra and portions of Srn CA and Srn NV today and Monday along with cool temperatures. Precipitation amounts will be variable with the convection but generally a hundredth or two to around a tenth of an inch will local amounts to around a third of an inch possible. Freezing levels around 7000 to 9000 ft today and rise to around 8000 ft and higher Monday. High pressure over the north will continue to bring warm and dry conditions to the northern portion of the region into Monday. The pattern starts to shift Tuesday into Wednesday as a low pressure system approaches the B.C./WA coast and high pressure shifts south over the region and low moves off to the east into AZ/NM. A few showers possible in the Shasta Basin and along the Sierra and mainly over the higher terrain of Srn Ca and Srn NV on Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure weakens and shifts east with a trough/lows deepening over the Eastern Pacific on Thursday and approaching the west coast Friday. This will bring a chance of precipitation to Srn OR and Nrn CA on Thursday. Variability among models and ensemble members in the details of the strength and track and timing of the low leading to lower confidence in timing and precip amounts and coverage. General trend has been slower timing but the 06Z GFS is the slowest and than the 00Z EC the fastest. The 24 hr QPF 50th Presciently Clusters ending at 00Z Sat with a threshold of 0.25 show about half of the ensemble members (53 % with Canadian 45% GFS 67% and EC 48%) showing dry conditions into Friday afternoon except some light precip (0.25 inches or less) over the Smith Basin and Srn OR Cascades and about a quarter of the members 23%- Canadian 35% and GFS 13% and EC 24%) showing higher precip amounts (1-2 inches NW Ca coast and 0.5-1.5 over Shasta Basin and Nrn Sierra ) and precip stretching over all of Nrn CA. The other about a quarter of the ensembles has lighter amounts(0.75-1.75 inches over NW CA coast and 0.5-1 inch over Shasta and 0.5 inches for Feather Basin and Russian Basin) and doesn't stretch as far south. Freezing levels around 8000 ft and higher Tuesday and dropping to around 6500-8000 ft over Srn OR and Nrn CA on Thursday and down to around 4000-6000ft over Nrn CA Friday night. Max temps drop to near to several degrees below normal over Nrn Ca and along the CA coast and near to around 10 degrees above normal over SJ Valley and into SE CA and over NV on Thursday and Friday. QPF graphics are available at www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/qpf.php Osborne $$