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AGUS76 KRSA 122005

HMDRSA



Hydrometeorological Discussion

National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA

105 PM PDT Tue Mar 12 2024



...PRECIP EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

...UPR LOW DROPPING SOUTH OVER EASTERN AREAS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT 

PRECIP POSSIBLE...



.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SHORT TERM: TUE PM - FRI AM)...



Best precip this afternoon is focused in the vicinity of the s/wv 

trof moving from the Pacific Northwest and northern CA toward the 

Great Basin. Showers and even a few thunderstorms are evident across 

the northern half of NV...and to a lesser degree over the upper 

Klamath River basin and northern CA. Precip will taper off tonight 

into Wednesday with an upr low forming near the NV/UT border and 

then dropping southward toward the lower Colorado River basin as an 

amplified pattern sets up over the eastern Pacific and western US. 

Dry north to northeast flow will be the rule with the only chance of 

precip really is in the vicinity of the upr low from the NV/UT 

border down to the southeast CA deserts.





.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (LONG TERM: FRI AM - MON AM)...



High pressure over the Pac NW and into the north and central 

portions of the region and an upper low centered around the NV/CA/AZ 

border Friday and then wobbles around there as it weakens Saturday 

into Sunday. Models and ensemble members vary on exact track of the 

low and how long the low will stick around into early next week. 

Some members show no precip for our region and others show a few 

showers. Some members move it farther south and east Sunday. There 

is a chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms rotating 

around the low over far Srn NV and Srn CA (especially over the 

desert and north and east slopes) mainly on Friday and Saturday. The 

forecast mainly uses a blend of WPC and NBM and some of previous 

forecast which resulted in a few hundredths increase over the east 

slope of the San Diego County mtns Friday afternoon, otherwise 

little change for the afternoon forecast. Precipitation amounts 

expected to be around a tenth of an inch or less Friday and 

Saturday.  The forecast is currently dry for Sunday as low weakens 

and may move south and east.  Freezing levels generally around 

10,000 ft and higher in NW CA and around 5000-7000 ft over Srn CA 

and NV Friday and Saturday and rising to around 7000ft-9000 ft over 

Srn CA and NV on Sunday. 





QPF graphics are available at www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/qpf.php







Kozlowski/Osborne



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