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AGUS76 KRSA 151419

HMDRSA



Hydrometeorological Discussion

National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA

830 AM PDT Fri Mar 15 2024



...UPPER LOW TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS INTO 

EARLY NEXT WEEK..



.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SHORT TERM: FRI AM - MON AM)...



An upper low centered over srn CA/NV and western AZ continues to 

generate showers across those areas this morning as an upper ridge 

resides over the eastern Pacific. This dynamic will persist into the 

weekend with both systems shifting a bit eastward on Saturday. By 

Sunday, the upper low will be centered over AZ as the center of the 

ridge sits over British Columbia stretching across the PacNW. Mid 

level moisture and instability with the low may also generate some 

thunderstorms over parts of se CA and srn NV in addition to showers. 

The low will continue to move eastward further into AZ the rest of 

the weekend allowing the ridge to expand across more of the western 

U.S. and into nrn/cntrl CA/NV.



The result of high pressure to the nw and low pressure to the se 

will be above normal temperatures and dry conditions for nrn/cntrl 

CA/NV and below normal temperatures/showers/isolated thunderstorms 

for srn CA/NV during the near term. Exact QPF will be tricky due to 

potential convection, but the forecast was a blend of WPC guidance 

and the latest NBM. Generally only expecting 0.10-0.25" with 

isolated higher amounts over some of the srn Sierra and mntns east 

of San Diego/San Bernadino on the order of 0.50-1". Locally higher 

totals possible. Freezing levels about 5-7 kft where precip is 

expected.





.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (LONG TERM: MON AM - THU AM)...



The slow moving upr low will continue to be located over the lower 

Colorado River basin to start the period...while the upr ridge axis 

above this feature extends from the Pacific Northwest into western 

Canada primarily along the BC/Alberta border. Still looking for some 

rather scattered showers possible across portions of southern NV and 

southern CA as this feature meanders in a similar location on Monday 

into Tuesday. Finally...by the middle of the week...the pattern will 

start to evolve with the upr low filling and moving off toward the 

east while the upr ridge becomes a bit more negatively tilted and 

nudges inland a tad as a result of upr troffing across the northeast 

Pacific rotating a series of disturbances toward the west coast. 

This may generate some scattered showers across the northern portion 

of the region close to the CA/OR border and far northern NV. 

Freezing levels will generally be from 8000- to 10000-feet across 

the area on Monday and Tuesday with some declines on Wednesday as 

the pattern shifts a bit...down to about 6000- to 7500-feet from 

about I-80 northward in CA.





QPF graphics are available at www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/qpf.php







AS/Kozlowski



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