####018006479#### FZAK30 PAFC 252222 ICOAFC Sea Ice Outlook for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 222 PM AKDT Thursday 25 April 2024 ...APRIL 2024 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK... The ice pack has been moving north, then back south every few days over the past month or so as lows move through the Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea. Some strips of ice made it as far south as St. Paul Island twice, but the weather pattern was too active for that ice to stay there for more than a day or two at a time. The extent of the ice pack as of the fourth week of April is greater than average over the past 15 years or so and is similar to this point in 2023. Looking ahead to break-up season, El Nino conditions are expected to continue to weaken through spring and transition to ENSO-neutral during the summer months. We are expecting break-up to continue to be slow through May, but quicken in June and July. Detailed information can be found in each pertinent section below. ...BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA... Bristol Bay is expected to be sea ice free for the season during the last week of April. For Kuskokwim Bay, the shorefast ice is typically the last ice within the bay to melt. That ice is expected to no longer be shorefast during the second week of May. Sea ice within Kuskokwim Bay is expected to reach three tenths concentration during the first week of May and be sea ice free by the middle of May. For Etolin Strait, sea ice is expected to reach three tenths concentration during the third week of May and be sea ice free during the first week of June. For Etolin Strait to Cape Romanzof, sea ice will no longer be shorefast during the third week of May. Navigational waters are expected to decrease to three-tenths coverage during the third week of May and be sea ice free by the end of May. For Cape Romanzof to Kwikpak, ice is no longer expected to be shorefast during the fourth week of May. Three-tenths coverage then sea ice free conditions are expected by the end of May. For Kwikpak to Unalakleet, ice is no longer expected to be shorefast by the end of May. Sea ice concentration will likely reach 3 tenths during the first week of June and be sea ice free for the season by mid-June. For Shaktoolik, sea ice concentration less than three tenths is expected during the first week of June. Sea ice free conditions are expected by mid-June. Around Norton Bay, ice is no longer expected to be shorefast around mid-May. Sea ice concentration within Norton Bay will reach three tenths by the end of May and sea ice free conditions are expected during the first week of June. For Golovin Bay, ice is no longer expected to be shorefast during the third week of May. Less than three tenths coverage is expected during the last week of May. Ice free conditions could happen by the end of May but is more likely during the first week of June. Along the Nome coast, dates of the last shorefast ice are highly variable from May to June and will depend on the prevailing storm track and air temperatures associated with the systems. At this time we expect ice to no longer be shorefast during the third or fourth week of May. Three tenths coverage is expected by the end of May. Ice free conditions are possible by the end of May but are more likely during the first week of June. Norton Sound is expected to decrease to three tenths concentration during the first week of June and be sea ice free for the season around mid-June. For Port Clarence, sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast by the end of May. Sea ice is expected to decrease to three tenths concentration then be sea ice free for the season by mid-June. For the Bering Sea south of 60N, ice free conditions are expected by mid-June. The Bering Sea south of Saint Lawrence Island is expected to be sea ice free around mid-June. Saint Lawrence Island to the Bering Strait is expected to reach three tenths sea ice concentration during the first week of June. The Bering Strait is expected to be sea ice free to 20 nm north and south of the center line around mid-June. The Bering Sea is expected to be sea ice free by the fourth week of June. ...BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA... For navigational waters from Wales to Espenberg, ice is no longer expected to be shorefast around mid-May. Sea ice concentration is expected to reach three tenths around mid-June and be sea ice free for the season during the third week of June. For Kotzebue Sound, sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast during the first week of June. Sea ice concentrations are expected to reach 3 tenths around mid-June and be sea ice free by the end of June. For navigational waters from Cape Krusenstern to Point Hope, sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast during the first week of June. Three tenths concentration is expected during the third week of June and sea ice free conditions are expected around the end of June or beginning of July. For navigational waters from Point Hope to Wainwright, sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast during the first half of June. Sea ice concentration is expected to decrease to three tenths during the second half of June and be sea ice free for the season by the end of June or beginning of July. For Wainwright to Utqiagvik, sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast during the second half of June. Sea ice concentration is expected to decrease to three tenths during the first half of July may become sea ice free by the end of July. ...BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA... From Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point, sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast during the second half of June. Sea ice may reach three tenths concentration by the end of July but is more likely to happen in early August. From Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island, sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast during the first half of July. From Point Barrow to Cape Halkett, sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast during the first half of July. $$ Schreck