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FZAK80 PAFC 132319

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

320 PM AKDT Wednesday 13 September 2023



FORECAST VALID...Monday 18 September 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate to high.



SYNOPSIS...a weak elongated low pressure stretches across the 

Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. The system will diminish and move into 

the western Chukchi Sea on Friday. Another low will form near the 

Mackenzie River Delta on Friday and move into the far eastern 

Beaufort Sea over the weekend. 

 

-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-



The main ice edge in the Beaufort Sea extends from 76 57'N 156 36'W 

to 76 44'N 147 33'W to 75 30'N 149 23'W to 74 2'N 144 53'W to 73 

35'N 136 53'W and continues east in Canadian waters. The ice edge is 

open water. 



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Beaufort 

Sea extends from 300 nm north of Point Barrow to 335 nm north-

northeast of Point Barrow to 260 nm north-northeast of Point Barrow 

to 230 nm north of Prudhoe Bay to 240 nm north of Demarcation Point 

and continues east in Canadian waters. 



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Slow melt of existing ice will continue along 

with movement generally with tides and currents. Light northerly 

flow will set up in the eastern Beaufort Sea, moving ice to the 

south 15 to 25 nm through Monday. 





-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-



The main ice edge in the Chukchi Sea extends from 76 57'N 156 36'W 

to 77 3'N 174 53'W to 74 32'N 170 26'W to 73 31'N 161 34'W to 72 

36'N 160 59'W to 72 13'N 175 50'W to 67 47'N 175 34'W



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Chukchi 

Sea extends from 300 nm north of Point Barrow to 430 nm northwest of 

Point Barrow to 420 nm west-northwest of Point Barrow to 160 nm 

northwest of Point Barrow to 100 nm to 120 nm north of Wainwright to 

300 nm west-northwest of Wainwright to 240 nm west of Kivalina. The 

ice edge is open water. 



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Light and variable winds will generally move ice 

with tides and currents while melt slowly continues. Expect the 

appendage of ice pointing toward Utqiagvik from the west to mostly 

melt though a small area will likely survive five days, but not long 

after. 



&& 

Lawson