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FZAK80 PAFC 152311

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

311 PM AKDT Friday 15 September 2023



FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 18 September 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High.



SYNOPSIS...A weak elongated low pressure stretches across the 

western Chukchi Sea as well as the far southeastern Beaufort Sea. 

The Chukchi system will diminish quickly. The Beaufort system will 

move northward just west of the Canadian Archipelago. A new low 

pressure will form just off the northwest coast of Alaska. 



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-



The main ice edge in the Beaufort Sea extends from 76 57'N 156 36'W 

to 76 44'N 147 33'W to 75 30'N 149 23'W to 74 2'N 144 53'W to 73 

35'N 136 53'W and continues east in Canadian waters. The ice edge is 

open water. 



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Beaufort 

Sea extends from 300 nm north of Point Barrow to 335 nm north-

northeast of Point Barrow to 260 nm north-northeast of Point Barrow 

to 230 nm north of Prudhoe Bay to 240 nm north of Demarcation Point 

and continues east in Canadian waters. 



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Wind forcing will be relatively light and 

variable. Slow melt of existing ice will continue along with 

movement generally with tides and currents.  





-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-



The main ice edge in the Chukchi Sea extends from 76 57'N 156 36'W 

to 77 3'N 174 53'W to 74 32'N 170 26'W to 73 31'N 161 34'W to 72 

36'N 160 59'W to 72 13'N 175 50'W to 67 47'N 175 34'W



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Chukchi 

Sea extends from 300 nm north of Point Barrow to 430 nm northwest of 

Point Barrow to 420 nm west-northwest of Point Barrow to 160 nm 

northwest of Point Barrow to 100 nm to 120 nm north of Wainwright to 

300 nm west-northwest of Wainwright to 240 nm west of Kivalina. The 

ice edge is open water. 



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Light and variable winds will generally move ice 

with tides and currents while melt slowly continues. A developing 

low near the northwest coast of Alaska will bring some moderate 

northwesterly winds to the southwestern Chukchi Sea. In this area 

the ice will advance to the southeast 20 to 40 nm through Wednesday. 

 



&& 

Lawson