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FZAK80 PAFC 181954

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

1200 PM AKDT Monday 18 September 2023



FORECAST VALID...Saturday 23 September 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate.



SYNOPSIS...The low pressure off the northwest coast of Alaska will 

move over the ice edge in the Beaufort Sea and strengthen through 

Thursday. High pressure builds over the Chukchi Sea during the 

weekend.





-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-



The main ice edge in the Beaufort Sea extends from 76 57'N 156 36'W 

to 76 44'N 147 33'W to 75 30'N 149 23'W to 74 2'N 144 53'W to 73 

35'N 136 53'W and continues east in Canadian waters. The ice edge is 

open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Beaufort 

Sea extends from 300 nm north of Point Barrow to 335 nm north-

northeast of Point Barrow to 260 nm north-northeast of Point Barrow 

to 230 nm north of Prudhoe Bay to 240 nm north of Demarcation Point 

and continues east in Canadian waters. The ice edge is open water.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is moderate. Winds in the northern Beaufort will be from 

the northeast through Wednesday. This will encourage the ice to move 

towards the southwest. Starting on Thursday, wind forcing will be 

light and variable, before possibly shifting from the west on Friday.







-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-



The main ice edge in the Chukchi Sea extends from 76 57'N 156 36'W 

to 77 3'N 174 53'W to 74 32'N 170 26'W to 72 43'N 160 23'W to 73 

26'N 172 50'W to 67 47'N 175 34'W. There is a large area of ice-free 

waters north and east of Wrangel Island. The ice edge is open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Chukchi 

Sea extends from 300 nm north of Point Barrow to 430 nm northwest of 

Point Barrow to 420 nm west-northwest of Point Barrow to 120 nm 

northwest of Point Barrow to 270 nm west-northwest of Wainwright to 

240 nm west of Kivalina. There is a large area of ice-free waters 

north and east of Wrangel Island. The ice edge is open water.



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is moderate.  Moderate northwesterly winds in the 

southwestern Chukchi Sea remain through Wednesday. During this time 

the ice may advance to the southeast 20 to 40 nm. Then winds may 

shift from the southeast on Thursday. Expect the sea ice to continue 

to thin in the southwestern Chukchi Sea, but the main sea ice edge 

may expand southward by Saturday.



 

&& 

Tinker