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FZAK80 PAFC 022338

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

340 PM AKDT Monday 2 October 2023



FORECAST VALID...Saturday 7 October 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High.



SYNOPSIS...A low pressure in the high Arctic/North Pole will drift 

to the southeast Beaufort Sea through Friday. High pressure will 

begin to build over the Chukchi Sea Tuesday and Wednesday, expanding 

into the western Beaufort Sea late in the week. 

.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



The main ice edge in the Beaufort Sea extends from 77 7'N 156 44'W 

to 77 25'N 150W to 73 48'N 148 19'W to 74 7'N 140 52'W and continues 

east in Canadian waters. The ice edge is open water. 



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Beaufort 

Sea extends from 330 nm north of Point Barrow to 360 nm north-

northeast of Point Barrow to 260 nm north of Demarcation Point and 

continues in Canadian waters. The ice edge is open water. 



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Light westerly winds will remain through 

Wednesday, expect ice to move 10 to 20 nm to the east. Thursday 

through Saturday, light to moderate northerly winds will move over 

the ice area, moving ice to the south 10 to 20 nm.  The coldest air 

of the season so far will accompany the low pressure system so 

expect ice to continue to form along the ice edge and within the 

pack. The air mass is cold enough that it is possible to see new ice 

forming behind barrier islands along the North Slope coast. 



-CHUKCHI SEA-



The main ice edge in the Chukchi Sea extends from 77 7'N 156 44'W to 

71 23'N 155 50'W and continues west in Russian waters. There is also 

an area of ice near 73 33'N 174 48'W.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Chukchi 

Sea extends from 330 nm north of Point Barrow to 400 nm northwest of 

Point Barrow and continues west in Russian waters. There is also an 

area of ice 290 nm northwest of Icy Cape. The ice edge is open water.



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Westerly winds will turn northwesterly by 

Thursday, then become light and variable as high pressure build in. 

Expect the ice edge to move expand 25 to 40 nm to the southeast 

during this time period. The arctic air associated with the system 

will continue to grow new ice along the edge. 



 Overall, expect westerly to northwesterly winds 

across the Chukchi Sea through Wednesday. Colder air will move south 

across the region Monday through Wednesday, allowing new ice to form 

and thicken within and near the existing ice pack especially where 

winds are less than 15 kt. The overall ice edge will likely not 

change significantly through Wednesday.



&& 

Lawson