####018003020####
FZAK80 PAFC 062113

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

115 PM AKDT Friday 6 October 2023



FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 11 October 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High.



SYNOPSIS...A low pressure in the high Arctic/North Pole will drift 

to the southeast Beaufort Sea through Saturday. High pressure over 

the Chukchi Sea will expand into the Beaufort Sea through Monday. By 

mid-week a low will form over the Canadian Archipelago. 





-BEAUFORT SEA-



The main ice edge in the Beaufort Sea extends from  76 37'N 157 25'W 

to 76 42'N 146 59'W to 74 11'N 148 47'W to 74N 140 34'W and 

continues southeast in Canadian waters. The ice edge is open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Beaufort 

Sea extends from 300 nm north of Point Barrow to 335 nm north-

northeast of Point Barrow to 210 nm northeast of Point Barrow to 252 

nm north of Demarcation Point and continues southeast in Canadian 

waters. The ice edge is open water.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Winds will remain fairly light and variable 

through the forecast period until Wednesday when moderate 

northeasterly winds develop and begin to move the pack ice to the 

southwest. Otherwise, the deepening arctic air mass will remain over 

head and encourage new pack ice to develop along the ice edge as 

well as continuing to cool sea surface temperatures out away from 

the pack ice. It is possible sometime early next week to see 

widespread freezing out away from the pack ice if water temperatures 

cool enough. 



Along the north slope coast, ice will continue to form, especially 

behind barrier islands. Beyond barrier islands, ice will struggle to 

gain a foothold, especially when northeasterly winds push warmer 

water near the coast.  





-CHUKCHI SEA-



The main ice edge in the Chukchi Sea extends from 76 37'N 157 25'W 

to 74 21'N 175 38'W to 72 17'N 171 16'W to 73 29'N 179 18'W and 

continues west in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Chukchi 

Sea extends from 300 nm north of Point Barrow to to 370 nm west-

northwest of Point Barrow to 270 nm west of Point Barrow to 420 nm 

west-northwest of Point Barrow and continues west in Russian waters. 

The ice edge is open water.



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Expect little movement of existing ice, however 

the ice edge will expand 20 to 40 nm through Wednesday as good 

growing conditions will remain over the area. Light winds, high 

pressure and a deepening arctic air mass will encourage new ice to 

form along the ice edge. 



It is possible to begin to see some new ice forming behind barrier 

islands and protected bays of the northwest Alaska coastline. 







&& 

Lawson