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FZAK80 PAFC 092303

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

1503 PM AKDT Monday 9 October 2023



FORECAST VALID...Saturday 14 October 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High.



SYNOPSIS...High pressure will remain over the Beaufort and Chukchi 

Seas through Saturday. A strong low will move north into the western 

Bering Sea Thursday through Saturday. 





-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-



The main ice edge in the Beaufort Sea extends from 75 39'N 157W to 

76 47'N 155 16'W to 77N 150W to 75 41'N 142 15'W to 73 20'N 141 49'W 

to 71 39'N 136 26'W and continues southeast in Canadian waters. The 

ice edge is open water. There is also sea ice mainly behind barrier 

islands along the north coast of Alaska.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Beaufort 

Sea extends from 250 nm north of Point Barrow to 315 nm north-

northeast of Point Barrow to 335 nm north of Prudhoe Bay to 185 nm 

north of Kaktovik to 155 nm NE of Kaktovik and continues southeast 

in Canadian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is also sea 

ice mainly behind barrier islands along the north coast of Alaska.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Cold air will remain over the Beaufort Sea 

through Saturday. Winds will remain fairly light and variable 

through the forecast period until Friday and Saturday when moderate 

northeasterly to northerly winds develop and begin to move the pack 

ice 30 to 50 nm to the south-southwest. Otherwise, the arctic air 

mass will remain overhead and encourage new pack ice to develop 

along the ice edge as well as continuing to cool sea surface 

temperatures out away from the pack ice.  



Along the north slope coast, ice will continue to form and will 

begin spreading north just a bit beyond barrier islands. Sea ice 

will struggle to gain a foothold beyond the barrier islands as 

warmer waters are just offshore.  





-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-



The main ice edge in the Chukchi Sea extends from 75 39'N 157W to 75 

56'N 163 56'W to 72 21'N 170 13'W to 72 45'N 177 33'W and continues 

west in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Chukchi 

Sea extends from 250 nm north of Point Barrow to 290 nm north-

northwest of Point Barrow to 210 nm west-northwest of Wainwright to 

330 nm west-northwest of Wainwright and continues west in Russian 

waters. The ice edge is open water.



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Expect little movement of existing ice through 

Thursday, however the ice edge will expand 20 to 40 nm through 

Saturday as good growing conditions will remain over the area. Light 

winds, high pressure and a deepening arctic air mass will encourage 

new ice to form along the ice edge through Thursday, then moderate 

northerly winds will allow the ice pack to drift south up to 20 nm 

Friday and Saturday.



-BERING SEA-



PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-



There is new sea ice within the protected bays of northern Norton 

Sound.



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is high. Northerly to easterly winds will persist across northern 

Norton Sound. New sea ice will continue to grow within the protected 

bays of northern Norton Sound as well as Port Clarence through 

Saturday. 



&& 

Schreck