####018004302#### FZAK80 PAFC 182021 RRA ICEAFC Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 1230 PM AKDT Wednesday 18 October 2023 FORECAST VALID...Monday 23 October 2023 ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate to High SYNOPSIS...A low along the sea ice edge in the Beaufort Sea will weaken by Friday. High pressure then builds through the weekend. -BEAUFORT SEA- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm- PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm- The main ice edge in the Beaufort Sea extends from 75 36'N 157 2'W to 71 36'N 139 37'W and continues in Canadian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is also new and young sea ice along the north coast of Alaska. From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Beaufort Sea extends from 240 nm north of Point Barrow to 115 nm north of Demarcation Point and continues in Canadian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is also new and young sea ice along the north coast of Alaska. FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. North/northwesterly winds are expected through the forecast period. Winds from the north and colder temperatures Sunday, should encourage new ice growth. The ice edge is expected to grow south 40 to 60 nm through Monday as new sea ice continues to form along and near the ice edge. Along the north slope coast, sea ice will continue to form and will begin spreading north just a bit beyond barrier islands. Sea ice will struggle to gain a foothold beyond the barrier islands as warmer waters are just offshore. Westerly winds are expected through the forecast period. -CHUKCHI SEA- PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore- PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm- PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm- PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm- PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 NM- PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 NM- PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 NM- The main ice edge in the Chukchi Sea extends from 75 36'N 157 2'W to 72 31'N 166 28'W and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is also sea ice within protected bays and behind barrier islands along the coast from Wales to Point Barrow. From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Chukchi Sea extends from 240 nm north of Point Barrow to 190 nm west of Point Barrow and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is also sea ice within protected bays and behind barrier islands along the coast from Wales to Point Barrow. FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Moderate winds from the northwest are expected through the forecast period. Winds may shift and strengthen from the east/southeast on Sunday. Sea ice will continue to grow within and south of the main ice pack, but strong winds on Sunday and Monday, may retreat the ice edge to the west and north. Overall, the ice edge will likely expand 30 to 50 nm south through Monday. -BERING SEA- PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM- PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM- PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 NM- PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 NM- PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 NM- PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 NM- PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 NM- PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 NM- There is new sea ice within the protected bays of northern Norton Sound and along the Alaska coast from Emmonak to Cape Newenham. FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is moderate. Northerly winds may shift to southerly through the weekend. Southerly winds would encourage new sea ice to melt. Overall, expect new sea ice to continue to grow along the Alaska coastline and in protect bays through Saturday. && Tinker