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FZAK80 PAFC 232311

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

311 PM AKDT Monday 23 October 2023



FORECAST VALID...Saturday 28 October 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High



SYNOPSIS...High pressure builds through Wednesday, then a low moves 

north across the western Chukchi Sea Thursday. High pressure builds 

over the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas Friday and Saturday. 



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-



The main ice edge in the Beaufort Sea extends from 73 33'N 156 41'W 

to 73 5'N 142 33'W to 71 5'N 138 48'W and continues in Canadian 

waters. The ice edge is open water. There is new and young sea ice 

up to 15 nm offshore along the north coast of Alaska.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Beaufort 

Sea extends from 125 nm north of Point Barrow to 170 nm north of 

Kaktovik to 90 nm north-northeast of Demarcation Point and continues 

in Canadian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is new and 

young sea ice up to 15 nm offshore along the north coast of Alaska.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is moderate. Moderate southerly to westerly winds will 

persist through Saturday, which may melt much of the new ice formed 

along the ice edge. The ice edge will likely move east up to 20 nm 

during the times of westerly winds, otherwise little overall change 

is expected along the ice edge through Saturday.



Along the north slope coast, sea ice will continue to spread north 

just a bit beyond barrier islands. Sea ice will struggle to gain a 

foothold beyond the barrier islands as warmer waters are just 

offshore.



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 NM-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 NM-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 NM-





The main ice edge in the Chukchi Sea extends from 73 33'N 156 41'W 

to 73 39'N 161W to 72 16'N 159 18'W to 71 21'N 174 8'W and continues 

in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is new sea ice 

within protected bays and along the coast from Cape Lisburne to 

Point Barrow.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Chukchi 

Sea extends from 125 nm north of Point Barrow to 155 nm northwest of 

Point Barrow to 70 nm northwest of Point Barrow to 315 nm west of 

Point Barrow and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open 

water. There is new sea ice within protected bays and along the 

coast from Cape Lisburne to Point Barrow.



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is moderate. Moderate winds from the south and west are 

expected through Thursday, then winds will be light and variable 

Friday and Saturday. Sea ice will continue to grow within the main 

ice pack, but strong winds from the south will likely retreat the 

ice edge to the west and north. Overall, the ice edge will likely 

move up to 20 nm east through Thursday, then some recovery of the 

new sea ice is expected Friday and Saturday.



Along the northwest coast, predominant southerly winds will hinder 

new sea ice growth and may melt some of the existing ice along the 

coast and in protected bays.



-BERING SEA-



PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 NM-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 NM-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 NM-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 NM-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 NM-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 NM-



There is new sea ice along the coast from near Goodnews Bay to near 

Stebbins as well as within the protected bays of northern Norton 

Sound.



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. Southerly winds and warmer air temperatures will likely 

cause most of the newly formed sea ice to melt.



&& 

Schreck