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FZAK80 PAFC 302104

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

110 PM AKDT Monday 30 October 2023



FORECAST VALID...Saturday 4 November 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High to moderate



SYNOPSIS...High pressure builds through the week. In the Gulf of 

Alaska, a low pressure will weaken through the week.





-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-



The main ice edge in the Beaufort Sea extends from 73 35'N 155 42'W 

to 73 49'N 147 50'W to 71 11'N 142 25'W and continues in Canadian 

waters. The ice edge is open water. There is new and young sea ice 

up to 30 nm offshore along the north coast of Alaska.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Beaufort 

Sea extends from 135 nm north of Point Barrow to 195 nm north of 

Oliktok Point to 65 nm north of Kaktovik and continues in Canadian 

waters. The ice edge is open water. There is new and young sea ice 

up to 30 nm offshore along the north coast of Alaska.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Northerly winds will bring colder air back to 

the Beaufort Sea through Saturday. The return of colder air will 

allow ice to re-form within and near the ice pack. Overall, the ice 

edge is expected to advance 50 to 80 nm south through Saturday, with 

additional advancement in some areas where sea surface temperatures 

are primed.



Along the north slope coast, winds from the east shift from the 

north on Wednesday. Sea ice will grow through Saturday with colder 

air over the region.





-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 NM-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 NM-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 NM-



The main ice edge in the Chukchi Sea extends from 73 35'N 155 42'W 

to 71 1'N 174 57'W and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is 

open water. There is new sea ice within protected bays and along the 

coast from Cape Lisburne to Point Barrow.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Chukchi 

Sea extends from 135 nm north of Point Barrow to 255 nm west of Icy 

Cape and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. 

There is new sea ice within protected bays and along the coast from 

near Point Lay to Point Barrow.



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is moderate. Moderate winds from the northeast are 

expected through Saturday. Overall, the ice edge may expand 10 to 20 

nm through Saturday.



Along the northwest coast, predominant winds from the northeast will 

cool air temperatures enough for sea ice growth. Winds may increase 

through the weekend, which would slow the rate of sea ice growth.





-BERING SEA-



PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 NM-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 NM-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 NM-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 NM-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 NM-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 NM-



There is new sea ice along the coast from near Quinhagak to near 

Kwikpak and within the protected bays of northern Norton Sound.



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. Predominant winds from the northeast will cool air 

temperatures enough for sea ice growth. Winds may increase through 

the weekend, which would slow the rate of sea ice growth.





&& 

Tinker