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FZAK80 PAFC 012320

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

320 PM AKDT Wednesday 1 November 2023



FORECAST VALID...Monday 6 November 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High to moderate



SYNOPSIS...High pressure will build over the high Arctic through 

Monday. A low will move into the western Bering Sea Sunday and 

Monday.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-



The main ice edge in the Beaufort Sea extends from 72 13'N 156 17'W 

to 70 29'N 139 58'W to 69 45'N 137 11'W and continues in the Chukchi 

Sea. The ice edge is open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Beaufort 

Sea extends from 47 nm north of Point Barrow to 50 nm north of 

Demarcation Point to 100 nm northeast of Demarcation Point to 70 nm 

east of Demarcation Point to 11 nm north of Point Barrow and 

continues in the Chukchi Sea. The ice edge is open water.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Northerly winds will bring colder air back to 

the Beaufort Sea through Monday. The return of colder air will allow 

ice to thicken within the ice pack and new ice to grow south of the 

ice pack. Overall, the ice edge is expected to advance up to 20 nm 

south through Monday, though the area of pack ice is expected to 

advance 50 to 80 nm south through Monday.



Along the north slope coast, sea ice will likely grow farther 

offshore but northerly to easterly winds will push the newly formed 

ice back toward the coast.



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 NM-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 NM-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 NM-



The main ice edge in the Chukchi Sea extends from 72 13'N 156 17'W 

to 72 53'N 159 53'W to 71 23'N 174 57'W and continues in Russian 

waters. The ice edge is open water. There is also new sea ice within 

protected bays and along the coast from near Cape Lisburne to Point 

Barrow.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Chukchi 

Sea extends from 47 nm north of Point Barrow to 105 nm northwest of 

Point Barrow to 345 nm west of Point Barrow and continues in Russian 

waters. The ice edge is open water. There is also new sea ice within 

protected bays and along the coast from near Cape Lisburne to Point 

Barrow.



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is moderate. Northerly winds will become easterly Friday 

through Monday. Already established ice will continue to thicken 

during the forecast period. While the northerly winds will continue 

to bring in colder air, sea surface temperatures are likely too warm 

for much sea ice growth just beyond the current ice pack. Overall, 

the ice edge may expand 10 to 20 nm through Monday. Sea ice will 

likely continue to form over Hannah Shoal through Monday as well.



Along the northwest coast, predominant winds from the northeast will 

cool air temperatures enough for sea ice growth along much of the 

coastline. Winds may increase through the weekend, which would slow 

the rate of sea ice growth.



-BERING SEA-



PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 NM-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 NM-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 NM-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 NM-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 NM-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 NM-



There is new sea ice along the coast from near Quinhagak to near 

Kwikpak and within the protected bays of northern Norton Sound.



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. Predominant winds from the northeast will cool air 

temperatures enough for sea ice growth. Winds may increase through 

the weekend, which would slow the rate of sea ice growth. The best 

chance for new sea ice growth will be a brief period of colder air 

from the north on Saturday and Sunday before a front brings warmer 

air north through the Yukon Delta again late Sunday into Monday.



&& 

Schreck