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FZAK80 PAFC 082346

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

246 PM AKST Wednesday 8 November 2023



FORECAST VALID...Monday 13 November 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High to moderate



SYNOPSIS...High pressure will persist over the High Arctic through 

Friday, then will move east across the Beaufort Sea Saturday through 

Monday. A series of lows will move across the central and southern 

Bering Sea through Monday.



The main ice edge extends from 68 25'N 166 29'W to 70 45'N 160 35'W 

to 72 8'N 169 22'W to 69 34'N 178 21'W to 66 10'N 169 47'W. The ice 

edge is open water. There is also new and young sea ice in Kotzebue 

Sound up to near Kivalina.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Cape Lisburne to 30 nm northwest of Wainwright to 340 nm west 

of Point Barrow to 330 nm west of Icy Cape to 50 nm northwest of 

Wales. The ice edge is open water. There is also new and young sea 

ice in Kotzebue Sound up to near Kivalina.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-



Ice covered.



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Moderate to strong northeasterly and easterly 

winds along with the help of the Beaufort Gyre current will help 

move sea ice to the west, and the wind and wave action may cause 

some of the newest ice to melt. 



Along the north slope coast, the strong winds may slow the rate of 

new ice growth through the forecast period and new ice that does 

form at night may melt during the day. Expect any new sea ice 

outside of protect bays to move to the west through the forecast 

period.



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 NM-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 NM-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 NM-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is moderate. Strong easterly/northeasterly winds will 

continue to push sea ice west towards Russian waters 50 to 70 nm and 

new ice will likely form mainly near Hannah Shoal. 



Along the northwest coast, strong winds may slow the rate of sea ice 

growth. Sea ice within protected bays, especially in Kotzebue Sound, 

may be pushed into open water and partially melt. New sea ice growth 

is expected along west-facing coastlines especially when winds 

decrease below 15 mph.



-BERING SEA-



PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 NM-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 NM-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 NM-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 NM-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 NM-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 NM-



There is new sea ice along the coast from near Quinhagak to near 

Stebbins and within the protected bays of northern Norton Sound.



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. Predominant winds from the north to northwest will 

continue to cool sea water temperatures and may allow for some sea 

ice growth when winds are light. Winds shift to southerly to 

westerly Sunday and Monday, likely melting much of the new sea ice 

growth along the west coast of Alaska. 



&& 

Schreck