####018004247#### FZAK80 PAFC 110023 ICEAFC Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 323 PM AKST Friday 10 November 2023 FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 15 November 2023 ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High SYNOPSIS...High pressure will move east across the Beaufort Sea through Sunday. A strong low will move north along eastern Russia and into the Chukchi Sea Saturday through Wednesday. This low will bring a strong front east across the Bering Sea Saturday through Monday. A second low will move east across the Bering Sea Tuesday and Wednesday. The main ice edge extends from near Point Hope to near Wainwright to 72 8'N 168 46'W to 69 28'N 179 55'E to 66N 169 48'W. The ice edge is open water. There is also new and young sea ice in Kotzebue Sound up to near Kivalina. From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from near Point Hope to near Wainwright to 225 nm west of Point Barrow to 470 nm west of Point Barrow to 45 nm northwest of Wales. The ice edge is open water. There is also new and young sea ice in Kotzebue Sound up to near Kivalina. -BEAUFORT SEA- PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore- Ice covered. PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm- PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm- FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is moderate. Moderate to strong northeasterly and easterly winds will persist through Saturday, then shift to southeasterly to southerly through Wednesday. Sea ice will continue to drift southwest up to 20 nm through Saturday, then drift north Sunday through Wednesday. New sea ice may fill in the remaining open water area Wednesday, but depending on the amount of warm air brought north with the low that could be delayed another day or two. Along the north slope coast, sea ice growth will continue to be slow until colder air returns after Monday. -CHUKCHI SEA- PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm- PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm- PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm- PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 NM- PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 NM- PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 NM- FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is moderate. Strong easterly/northeasterly winds will continue to push sea ice west towards Russian waters through Saturday, then sea ice drift will be northerly then easterly as the low passes through Sunday through Wednesday. Along the northwest coast, existing sea ice will partially melt as warmer air is brought north with the low Sunday and Monday. New sea ice will likely quickly form again Tuesday and Wednesday as colder air moves back in over the region. -BERING SEA- PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM- PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM- PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 NM- PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 NM- PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 NM- PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 NM- PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 NM- PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 NM- The main ice edge extends from near Quinhagak to near Hooper Bay to 63 22'N 165 35'W to 63 43'N 161 5'W to 64 28'N 163 37'W. The ice edge is open water. From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from near Quinhagak to near Hooper Bay to 40nm northwest of Emmonak to 15 nm southwest of Unalakleet to 10 nm west of Golovin. FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is moderate. Existing sea ice will partially melt as warmer air is brought north with the low Sunday and Monday. New sea ice may once again form Tuesday and Wednesday, but lingering mild air may inhibit sea ice growth until later in the week. && Schreck