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FZAK80 PAFC 210039

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

339 PM AKST Monday 20 November 2023



FORECAST VALID...Saturday 25 November 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High to moderate



SYNOPSIS...Low pressure will remain over eastern Russia and the 

Chukchi Sea through Tuesday, and another weaker low will move east 

across the Beaufort Sea Wednesday through Friday. Another strong low 

will move east across the Aleutian Islands Tuesday through Saturday.



The main ice edge extends from near Cape Newenham to near Hooper Bay 

to 63 41'N 164 23'W to 63 50'N 161 26'W to 64 17'N 161 56'W to near 

Port Clarence to near Wales to Cape Krusenstern to 69 15'N 167 51'W 

to 70 14'N 163 57'W to 71 47'N 167 5'W to 69 32'N 176 40'W to 68 

49'N 171 9'W to 66 7'N 169 39'W. The ice edge is open water. 



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Cape Newenham to near Hooper Bay to 97 nm west of Unalakleet to 

17 nm west of Unalakleet to 19 nm west of Shaktoolik to 50 nm west 

of Shaktoolik to near Port Clarence to near Wales to Cape 

Krusenstern to Point Hope to 75 nm west of Point Lay to 50 nm north 

of Point Lay to 210 nm west of Point Barrow to 275 nm west of Point 

Lay to 175 nm west of Point Lay to 25 nm northwest of Diomede.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is moderate. Sea ice will drift north overall through 

Tuesday, then drift with local winds and currents Wednesday and 

Thursday, then west Friday and Saturday. Expect the main pack ice to 

remain intact.



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 NM-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 NM-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 NM-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is low. Strong southerly winds will weaken gradually 

through Wednesday, then easterly winds develop through Saturday. 

Overall, expect the sea ice edge to move north and northwest 20 to 

30 nm through Saturday.



-BERING SEA-



PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 NM-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 NM-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 NM-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 NM-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 NM-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 NM-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is low. While some of the existing sea ice will melt through 

Wednesday across much of the Bering Sea, new sea ice growth is 

expected especially along the Yukon River Delta and eastern Norton 

Sound with easterly winds across the region. The main ice growth 

will occur anytime winds are below 15 mph.



-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



Sea ice is generally north and east of a line from the Susitna River 

Delta to Point Possession. 



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Air temperatures will 

warm significantly through Saturday to near and above freezing. Much 

of the existing sea ice will likely melt again by the weekend.



&&

Schreck