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ICOAFC



Sea Ice Outlook for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 

National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 

840 AM AKDT Thursday 23 November 2023



...NOVEMBER 2023 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK... 





Most of the sea ice growth during the past month was in the Beaufort 

Sea and eastern Chukchi Sea. While there was some modest sea ice 

growth along the west coast of Alaska south of Icy Cape that began 

earlier than last year, repeated storms moving through the Bering 

Sea and southern Chukchi Sea have prohibited substantial sea ice 

growth overall. 





Looking farther into freeze-up, El Nino conditions will persist 

through the coming winter and likely into spring 2024. Overall 

freeze-up looks like it will be slower than last year across most of 

Alaska waters, and likely slowest over the western Bering Sea. Storm 

tracks during El Nino can bring some storms north into and through 

the Bering Sea, so it may be a season of highly variable sea ice 

conditions. 





Detailed information can be found in each pertinent section below.





...FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA...





Icy Cape to Utqiagvik west to 170W is expected to reach seven tenths 

concentration by the end of November.





For Cape Krusenstern to Point Hope to 20 nm offshore, seven tenths 

coverage is expected by the end of November.





For navigational waters from Wales to Espenberg to 20 nm offshore, 

seven tenths concentration beyond barrier islands is expected by the 

end of November.





For Wales to Point Hope to 170W three tenths coverage ice is 

expected during the first week of December. Seven tenths coverage is 

expected by mid-December.





For the Bering Strait within 20 nm of Center Line, seven tenths 

coverage is expected during the third week of December.





...FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA...





For Norton Sound, seven tenths coverage is expected during the last 

week of November.





For the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta out to 20 nm offshore, seven tenths 

coverage is expected by the end of November.





Sea ice is expected to extend beyond Nunivak Island during the 

fourth week of December.





The first ice in Bristol Bay varies from year to year depending on 

the prevailing weather and temperature patterns. While sea ice has 

formed along the coast from Naknek to Dillingham, warm air has and 

winds have melted a significant portion of the ice. Coverage is 

expected to increase during the first or second week of December. 

Three tenths coverage is likely in the second half of December and 

seven tenths coverage is expected during the first half of January. 

It is likely that sea ice extent will vary significantly within 

Bristol Bay through the 2023-2024 sea ice season.





The ice edge is expected to reach Saint Lawrence Island around mid-

December. 





The ice edge is expected to reach Saint Matthew Island during the 

second half of January.





At this time, there looks to be a 30 to 40 percent chance that the 

ice edge will reach Saint Paul Island this season. If it does, it 

will most likely be after January. Sea ice is not expected to reach 

St. George Island this season.





...FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR COOK INLET...





Sea ice in Cook Inlet is very dependent on the prevailing ambient 

air temperature. El Nino winters tend to be warmer than average, so 

freeze-up dates will likely be later than the past three winters and 

sea ice extent will likely be variable through the winter as 

temperatures fluctuate. 





Some ice has been observed at times within Knik Arm and Turnagain 

Arm, and rarely near Anchorage. 





The first ice south of the line from Susitna Delta to Point 

Possession to the Forelands is expected during the second or third 

week of December.





The first ice south of the Forelands is expected around mid-January.





North of the Forelands, three tenths ice coverage is expected during 

the first half of January. Seven tenths coverage is expected during 

the last week of January.





The first ice along the coast from Kenai to Nikiski is expected 

during the third or fourth week of January.





The ice edge is expected to reach Kalgin Island during the second 

half of January. If warm air is persistent across the Cook Inlet 

region, the ice edge may not reach Kalgin Island until early 

February.





From 60N to the Forelands, three tenths concentration is expected 

during the first half of February. Seven tenths concentration is 

expected around mid-February. 





Sea ice may reach Ninilchik during the first half of February.





Sea ice is not expected to reach Anchor Point this season.





$$ 

Schreck