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FZAK80 PAFC 242225

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

125 PM AKST Friday 24 November 2023



FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 29 November 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High to moderate



SYNOPSIS...A large low pressure over the southern Bering Sea rapidly 

weakens through Saturday. A cold front associated with a Kamchatka 

system moves west to east across the Bering Sea through the weekend. 

That system slowly weakens over the Bering Strait region through 

Wednesday.



The main ice edge extends from near Cape Newenham to 61 41'N 166 

51'W to 63 31'N 165 31'W to 63 53'N 162 48'W to 64 30'N 166 40'W to 

Tin City, then from Wales to Kivalina to Point Hope to 69 55'N 166 

47'W to 70 29'N 163 20'W to 72 13'N 168 45'W and continues south to 

the Russian Coast. The ice edge is open water. 



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Cape Newenham to 20 nm west of Hooper Bay to 30 nm northwest of 

Kwikpak to 50 nm west of Unalakleet to 30 nm west of Nome to Tin 

City then from Wales to Kivalina then from Point Hope to 60 nm 

northwest of Cape Lisburne to 28 nm west of Icy Cape to 160 nm 

northwest of Icy Cape and continues south to the Russian coast. 





-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Winds will remain light out of the east, 

currents will mainly control ice drift. The air mass aloft is 

relatively warm so slow growth for the next week. 



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 NM-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 NM-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 NM-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Generally light easterly winds will remain 

through Wednesday. Expect ice to continue to grow and expand along 

the ice edge, 20 to 30 nm. Ice will likely encompass the west coast 

through Wales by Wednesday. The ice edge to the west will compact 

and retreat 10 to 20 nm through Wednesday. 



-BERING SEA-



PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 NM-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 NM-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 NM-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 NM-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 NM-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 NM-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is high. A warmer air mass and moderate winds will prevent much ice 

growth through the weekend. A front passing over the weekend will 

bring in a colder air mass, however, it will also bring onshore 

winds from warmer waters meaning ice compaction. The best chance for 

ice growth in this regime will be in eastern Norton Sound Monday 

through Wednesday. 



-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



Sea ice is generally north and east of a line from the Susitna River 

Delta to Point Possession. 



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Air temperatures will 

warm and not be conducive for ice development through Wednesday. 

Much of the existing sea ice will likely melt.



&&

Lawson