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FZAK80 PAFC 022018 AAA

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

308 PM AKST Friday 1 December 2023



FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 6 December 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High



SYNOPSIS...The predominant storm track runs from the north Pacific 

Ocean into the Gulf of Alaska. A moderate strength low forms in the 

western Bering Sea on Monday, moving to the Bering Strait on 

Wednesday.



The main ice edge extends from near Cape Newenham to 61 35'N 167W to 

64 16'N 165 23'W to 65 41'N 168 19'W to 66 52'N 165 8'W to Point 

Hope to 70 32'N 165 9'W to 72 1'N 167 32'W to 70 28'N 172 39'W to 68 

19'N 169 16'W to 66 10'N 169 42'W. The ice edge is open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Cape Newenham to 25 nm west of Hooper Bay to 10 nm south of 

Nome to 10 nm west of Wales to 40 nm north of Shishmaref to Point 

Hope to 60 nm west of Icy Cape to 140 nm northwest of Icy Cape to 

160 nm northwest of Cape Lisburne to 50 nm west of Point Hope to 25 

nm northwest of Diomede. 



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Expect light east/northeast winds and a 

seasonable air mass. Shorefast ice will continue to establish and 

thicken while the pack moves to the west, creating a shear zone 

between two features.



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 NM-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 NM-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 NM-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Overall, easterly winds and much colder air will 

remain over the Chukchi Sea. A weak low will sit near the Bering 

Strait, bringing a short period of southeasterly winds to the 

northwest coast of Alaska. A small polynya should open between 

Utqiagvik and Cape Lisburne. Otherwise expect the open water area to 

close in and the ice edge to expand 15 to 25 nm through Wednesday. 



-BERING SEA-



PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 NM-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 NM-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 NM-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 NM-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 NM-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 NM-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is high. Lighter northerly winds and a cooling air mass will foster 

new ice growth from Bristol Bay through the Bering Strait. Expect 

the ice edge to expand 20 to 30 nm through Tuesday morning. A low 

pressure moving toward the Bering Strait will bring a period of 

onshore winds late Tuesday into Wednesday which will push the edge 

back 10 to 20 nm. However, there is plenty of arctic air behind the 

front which will keep the Bering in growth regime for the 

foreseeable future. 



-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



Sea ice is confined to low concentrations near the Susitna River 

Delta and within Knik Arm. 



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

high. Air temperatures will allow for grease ice to form in mainly 

Knik and Turnagain Arms over the next couple of days as well as 

river ice coming out of the Knik River.



&&

Lawson