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FZAK80 PAFC 112331

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

230 PM AKST Monday 11 December 2023



FORECAST VALID...Saturday 16 December 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate



SYNOPSIS...A series of lows will move east across the southern 

Bering Sea into the Gulf of Alaska through Saturday. A stronger low 

may move north through the Bering Sea on Friday and Saturday.



The main ice edge extends from near Cape Newenham to near Cape 

Mendenhall to 63 56'N 166 9'W to 64 49'N 169 2'W to 63 25'N 172 57'W 

and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. There 

is also sea ice within Bristol Bay from Egegik to Togiak and along 

the southeast side of Saint Lawrence Island.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

Cape Newenham to near Cape Mendenhall to 40 nm south-southwest of 

Nome to 93 nm west of Nome to 39 nm southwest of Gambell and 

continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is 

also sea ice in Bristol Bay from Egegik to Togiak and along the 

southeast side of Saint Lawrence Island.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. The air mass remains conducive to growing and 

thickening of existing ice. Light northerly winds will persist. 

Shorefast ice will continue to establish and thicken while the pack 

moves to the west, creating a shear zone between the two features.



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Northerly to northeasterly winds will persist 

through the period, with moderate to strong winds through the Bering 

Strait. Expect much of the remaining open water area to fill in with 

new sea ice through Saturday, with the best chance for freezing most 

likely Thursday and Friday when winds are lightest. 



-BERING SEA-



PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 16 nm-

PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. Moderate to strong northerly winds will persist through 

Thursday and will likely allow for new sea ice growth especially 

from Nunivak Island and Saint Lawrence Island north and east. There 

is a chance new sea ice growth will be delayed if winds are strong 

enough to continue mixing in warmer water near the surface. Late 

Thursday through Saturday, winds will be easterly to southeasterly 

and warmer air will begin to move over the southern half of the 

Bering Sea. South of Nunivak Island, modest advancement of the ice 

edge up to 20 nm westward can be expected through Saturday.



-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



The main ice edge extends from near Tyonek to near Point Possession. 



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

high. Seasonable air temperatures will continue through Saturday, 

allowing for additional new sea ice growth across upper Cook Inlet 

through Saturday. 



&&

Schreck