####018005091####
FZAK80 PAFC 062042

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 

1241 PM AKDT Monday 6 May 2024



FORECAST VALID...Saturday 11 May 2024



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High to moderate.



SYNOPSIS...A large area of broad low pressure stretches from the 

southern Mainland through the Gulf of Alaska while high pressure 

sits over the Arctic. A strong and compact "polar low" will form to 

the south and west of Saint Matthew Island on Tuesday, moving to the 

south and east through Wednesday. A large low and front moves into 

the southern Bering Sea from the northwest Pacific Ocean on 

Thursday, moving into Bristol Bay on Saturday.





The main ice edge extends from near Quinhagak to 59 8’N 166 51’W to 

59 23’N 173 59’W to 60 49’N 179 58’W and continues in Russian 

waters. The ice edge is open water. 



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Quinhagak to to 35 nm south of Cape Mendenhall to 70 nm 

southwest of Saint Matthew Island to 280 nm southwest of Gambell and 

continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.





-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Winds will remain northeasterly through the 

period. Pack ice will remain consolidated against the shorefast ice 

with little change. 



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Winds will generally remain out of the northeast 

through Saturday. Polynyas will continue to open from Utqiagvik 

through Kivalina, but will quickly fill in with new ice.



-BERING SEA-



PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ412-Bering Sea 171W to 180 and North of 56N-

PKZ414-Bering Sea East of 171W-

PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-

PKZ766-Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is high. A strong and compact "polar low" will develop southwest of 

Saint Matthew Island on Tuesday. It will have a strong wind field 

that will could produce some storm force winds over a small area. 

Ice will move southward rapidly in this area Tuesday into Wednesday, 

likely 20-25 nm in that timeframe. Otherwise, light northerly winds 

will continue through the week which will continue to open polynyas 

along south facing coastlines while compacting ice against north 

facing coastlines. A stronger system in the southern Bering Sea late 

in the week will again speed up ice movement to the south on the 

order of 10-15 nm/day. 



Shorefast ice from the Kuskokwim through the Yukon Delta has not 

shown signs of much degradation as of yet, but is expected within 

the next couple of weeks as seasonal warming continues.  



&&

Lawson