####018005266####
FZAK80 PAFC 190009

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

310 PM AKST Monday 18 December 2023



FORECAST VALID...Saturday 23 December 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate



SYNOPSIS...A large low moves into the Bering Sea today, swinging a 

front toward the mainland. That low slowly weakens through mid-week, 

and another forms in the Gulf of Alaska on Thursday.  A stronger 

low/front moves from west to east across the Aleutians Thursday 

through Saturday. Arctic air remains over much of the ice pack 

through Saturday. 



The main ice edge extends from near Pilot Point to 60 16'N 169 7'W 

to 63 46'N 173 57'W and continues west in Russian waters. The ice 

edge is open water. 



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Pilot Point to 50 nm west of Cape Mohican to 50 nm west of 

Gambell and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. 



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Light winds will allow sea ice to move with 

local tides and currents through Saturday, mainly with the Beaufort 

Gyre from east to west. The air mass remains conducive to growing 

and thickening of existing ice. Shorefast ice will continue to 

establish and thicken.



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Northerly winds will persist through the period. 

Expect much of the remaining open water area to fill in with new sea 

ice through Saturday, with the best chance for freezing most likely 

Tuesday and Wednesday when winds are lightest. 



-BERING SEA-



PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 16 nm-

PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. A front moving ashore the southwest mainland will bring 

a brief period of onshore winds and a slightly warmer air mass from 

Bristol Bay through Cape Newenham, possibly to the Kuskokwim Delta. 

Arctic air will filter in behind that system returning a growth 

regime to the area. The next system moving south of the Alaska 

Peninsula will bring a period of offshore winds and likely a polynya 

from Bristol Bay through the Kuskokwim Delta. Otherwise, expect the 

ice edge to advance and grow 30 to 50 nm through Saturday.





-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



The main ice edge extends from near Tyonek to 60 55N 151 4'W to near 

Nikiski.



From land-based points, the ice edge extends from near Tyonek to 9 

nm south of Tyonek to near Nikiski.



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

moderate. Seasonable air temperatures will continue through midweek 

allowing additional new sea ice growth across Cook Inlet through 

Wednesday. Tides and currents will be the main source of ice 

movement through Saturday. A slightly warmer air mass will remain 

overhead Wednesday through Saturday, slowing ice growth slightly.



&&

Lawson