####018005276####
FZAK80 PAFC 292243

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

143 PM AKST Friday 29 December 2023



FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 3 January 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate



SYNOPSIS...A large low encompasses the southern Bering Sea and 

remains through the weekend. Another system moves across the Alaska 

Peninsula from the southwestern Gulf of Alaska on Monday, followed 

by a strong system in the southeastern Bering Sea by 

Tuesday/Wednesday.



The main ice edge extends from near Port Moller to 57 59'N 158 23'W 

to 58 7'N 163 15'W to 61 38'N 176 11'W and continues in Russian 

waters. The ice edge is open water. 



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Port Moller to 30 nm northwest of Pilot Point to 50 nm 

southeast of Cape Newenham to 175 nm southwest of Gambell and 

continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. High pressure remains over the Arctic, keeping 

the Beaufort Gyre in control of ice movement.  As strong low 

pressure develops in the Bering Sea, expect the eastward movement to 

accelerate through mid-week on the order of 10-20 nm/day Tuesday and 

Wednesday.



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Generally light to moderate northeasterly winds 

through the period, that become stronger out of the east by mid-

week. Expect a large polynya to develop from Utqiagvik through Cape 

Lisburne.  



-BERING SEA-



PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 16 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate to high. An active storm track into the eastern Bering 

Sea will set up through Wednesday.



For Bristol Bay through the Kuskokwim Delta, strong southeasterly 

winds from multiple low pressure systems will compact the pack back 

toward the coast 10 to 20 nm while pausing growth due to warmer air 

and winds. 



For the remainder of the ice edge, long duration easterly winds will 

keep the ice edge in roughly the same place through Tuesday, with 

some slight advance of 10 to 20 nm west of Saint Matthew Island. The 

strong low entering the Bering Sea on Wednesday has the potential to 

bring strong northerly winds to the edge, and rapid advance mid to 

late week, however details have yet to be determined. Stay tuned.  



-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



The main ice edge extends from near the West Foreland to near the 

East Foreland. The ice edge is open water.



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

moderate. Continued northerly winds and cold air will remain through 

the period. Expect ice to continue to advance southward, making it 

through the Forelands into early next week. 



 



&&

Lawson