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FZAK80 PAFC 012008

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

1108 AM AKST Monday 1 January 2023



FORECAST VALID...Saturday 6 January 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate to high.



SYNOPSIS...A strong but compact system lies southeast of the Alaska 

Peninsula while broad low pressure and several weaker centers covers 

the most of the Bering Sea. High pressure remains over the Arctic. 

On Tuesday, a very deep low pressure system moves south of the 

eastern Aleutians, then into the central Bering Sea on Wednesday and 

Thursday.  Over the weekend a second strong low moves from the 

northwest Pacific Ocean into the Bering Sea. 





The main ice edge extends from near Pilot Point 58 26'N 164 30'W to 

61 42'W 175 43'W and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is 

open water. 



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Pilot Point to 70 nm southwest of Cape Newenham to 160 nm 

southwest of Gambell and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge 

is open water.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Easterly winds will increase through mid-week 

and lighten again toward the weekend. Expect the eastward movement 

to accelerate through mid-week on the order of 10-20 nm/day Tuesday 

and Wednesday before dropping to 5-10 nm/day late in the week. 



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Moderate northeasterly winds develop through mid-

week. Expect a large polynya to continue to develop from Utqiagvik 

through Cape Lisburne. By late-week into the weekend the polynya 

will re-freeze under lighter winds and tides/currents will be the 

predominate ice movement driver.



-BERING SEA-



PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 16 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. An active storm track into the central Bering Sea will 

set up through Saturday.



For Bristol Bay through the Kuskokwim Delta, strong southeasterly 

winds will compact the pack back toward the coast 10 to 20 nm while 

pausing growth due to warmer air and winds. Expect ice along the 

Alaska Peninsula to melt out. 



For the remainder of the ice edge, long duration 

easterly/northeasterly winds will advance the ice edge to the west-

southwest 40 to 60 nm through Saturday. There is a greater chance 

for southerly movement from Saint Matthew Island westward with the 

following system on Saturday which looks to bring more northerly 

winds. 







-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



The main ice edge extends from near Cohoe to 15 nm southwest of the 

West Foreland.



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

moderate. The air mass overhead will moderate with temperatures in 

the teens and twenties which will slow new growth. However, 

persistent light northerly winds will keep ice flowing southward 

through the Foreland with the ice edge reaching Kalgin Island by 

late week. 





&&

Lawson