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FZAK80 PAFC 032330

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

230 PM AKST Wednesday 3 January 2023



FORECAST VALID...Monday 8 January 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate to high.



SYNOPSIS...A strong low located just north of the Aleutians will 

move into western Alaska by Friday. A second stronger low over the 

North Pacific will lift north across the Bering Sea Saturday through 

Monday, bringing a front east across the Alaska Peninsula Saturday 

and extending a front across the Alaska Peninsula Saturday into 

early Sunday. High pressure prevails over the Arctic through Monday. 



The main ice edge extends from near Egegik to 58 22'N 163 40'W to 62 

14'W 177W and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open 

water. 



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Egegik to 30 nm south of Cape Newenham to 170 nm southwest of 

Gambell and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Easterly winds will persist through the weekend, 

then strengthen Sunday into Monday. Expect the eastward movement to 

be 5-10 nm/day through Saturday, then strengthen again Sunday and 

Monday on the order of 10-20 nm per day. 



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Expect a large polynya to continue to develop 

from Utqiagvik through Cape Lisburne as east winds persist through 

Monday.



-BERING SEA-



PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 16 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. 



For Bristol Bay through the Kuskokwim Delta, strong southeasterly 

winds will compact the pack back toward the coast 10 to 20 nm while 

pausing growth due to warmer air and winds as the two lows move 

through the region during the forecast period. Expect ice along the 

Alaska Peninsula to melt out. 



For the remainder of the ice edge, long duration 

easterly/northeasterly winds will advance the ice edge to the west-

southwest 40 to 60 nm through Monday. There is a greater chance for 

southerly movement from Saint Matthew Island westward with the 

following system on Saturday which looks to bring more northerly 

winds at least through Sunday. The track of the second low is 

uncertain, so please check the local weather forecasts for updates 

on wind direction and speed. 



-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



The main ice edge extends from Tuxedni Bay to 60 29’N 151 31’W to 

60N 151 48’W.



From land-based points, the ice edge extends from Tuxedni Bay to 8 

nm northwest of Kalifonsky to 7 nm north of Anchor Point.



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

moderate. Winds will be light overall from the north and air 

temperatures will generally be in the teens and 20s through Monday. 

The persistent light northerly winds will keep ice flowing southward 

through the Forelands with the ice edge likely reaching Kalgin 

Island by Monday. 



&&

Schreck