####018005606####
FZAK80 PAFC 110010

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

310 PM AKST Wednesday 10 January 2023



FORECAST VALID...Monday 15 January 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate to high.



SYNOPSIS...A large area of low pressure will continue to weaken as 

it moves north across the Bering Sea through Thursday. In the wake 

of this system, an additional area of low pressure will develop and 

pull a front across the Bering Sea into the weekend. Behind this 

front, a new low is expected to move into the western Aleutians by 

Sunday, with a new front moving into the central Bering Sea by 

Monday. 



The main ice edge extends from near Egegik to 58 42'N 166 20'W to 

Saint Matthew Island to 61 28'N 174 11'W  to 61 48’N 177 56’W and 

continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Egegik to 100 nm south of Mekoryuk to Saint Matthew Island to 

155 nm south-southwest of Gambell to 210 nm southwest of Gambell and 

continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Light east winds will increase in magnitude 

through the weekend, peaking on Sunday before maintaining easterly 

flow but decreasing on Monday.  The air mass will maintain the 

growth of a polynya from Demarcation Point to Oliktok extending up 

to 45 nm from the shorefast ice. 



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Strong east winds through Friday will mobilize 

ice moving northwest out of Kotzebue sound. Winds will remain from 

the east through Monday but will decrease in magnitude, allowing 

areas to refreeze quickly.  



-BERING SEA-



PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 16 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. 



West of Saint Matthew Island, wind directions will be variable as 

lows move through the area, but most of the warm air will remain 

south and east. Sea ice will overall be able to continue slowly 

growing in this region and advance up to 20 nm south through Monday.



From Saint Matthew Island east, moderate to strong east to southeast 

winds will persist across the Bering Sea through Friday, ahead of a 

front moving across the region on Saturday. Behind the front, strong 

northwest flow will grow ice up to 30-50 nm south before retreating 

again as another low moves into the Bering Sea on Sunday. The next 

low will bring increasing south winds and warmer air to the eastern 

Bering Sea into Monday.  This prevailing warm air is expected to 

inhibit ice growth and shift the ice edge north up to 40-60 nm.  



-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



The main ice edge extends from near Tuxedni Bay to near Kalifonsky.



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

moderate. Temperatures will be steady in the teens and 20s through 

the period with light north winds prevailing through Monday. Slow 

overall ice growth is expected with ice movement limited by the 

tides and currents in Cook Inlet. 



&&

Baker/Schreck