####018004948####
FZAK80 PAFC 122345

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

245 PM AKST Friday 12 January 2023



FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 17 January 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High to moderate



SYNOPSIS...An area of low pressure near the Alaska Peninsula today 

will move north into the Chukchi through Monday. An additional low 

near Kamchatka Sunday will travel north into the Chukchi Monday and 

then into the high arctic. High pressure will then build over the 

western Mainland.



The main ice edge extends from near Cape Newenham to 59 26'N 166 

28'W to 61 12'N 169 40'W to 61 50'N 172 51'W to 61 11'N 173 42'W to 

61 49'N 177 44'W and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is 

open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Cape Newenham to 20 nm S of Cape Mendenhall to 85 nm N of St 

Matthew to 45 nm NNW of St Matthew to 160 nm SW of Gambell and into 

russian waters. The ice edge is open water.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...East winds will 

increase in magnitude through the weekend, peaking on Sunday before 

maintaining easterly flow but decreasing on Monday. The air mass 

will maintain the growth of a polynya from Demarcation Point to 

Oliktok extending up to 45 nm from the shorefast ice. Westerly winds 

by Wednesday will push pack ice back into the coast. 



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Strong east winds through Friday will mobilize 

ice moving northwest out of Kotzebue sound. Winds will remain from 

the east through Monday but will decrease in magnitude, allowing 

areas to refreeze quickly.  



-BERING SEA-



PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 16 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. 



The ice edge has retreated significantly near St. Matthew Island and 

has mostly melted out from Kuskokwim Bay south into Bristol Bay. 

Southerly winds will continue to melt areas along the shore and will 

further the retreat of the pack by 10 to 30 nm to the north.  



-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



The main ice edge extends from near Tuxedni Bay to near Kalifonsky.



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

moderate. Temperatures will be steady in the teens and 20s through 

the period with light north winds prevailing through Wednesday. Slow 

overall ice growth is expected with ice movement limited by the 

tides and currents in Cook Inlet. 



&&

Jones