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FZAK80 PAFC 152349

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

249 PM AKST Monday 15 January 2023



FORECAST VALID...Saturday 20 January 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High to moderate



SYNOPSIS...Low pressure over the Bering Strait Region will move 

north through the Chukchi sea on Tuesday. High pressure will build 

over the Bering Sea Tuesday, then shift east over the Alaska 

mainland Wednesday through Saturday. 



The main ice edge extends from near Cape Newenham to near Quinhagak 

to 59 36’N 167 49’W to 61 40’N 171 33'W to 61 16'W 172 34’W to 62N 

177 55’W and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open 

water. 



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Cape Newenham to near Quinhagak to 38 nm south of Cape Mohican 

to 125 nm south of Gambell to 150 nm south of Gambell to 200 nm 

southwest of Gambell and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge 

is open water.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Southeast winds will shift to south to southwest 

winds Tuesday, then to westerly winds Friday and Saturday. Expect 

the ice pack to continue to be mobile through the forecast period, 

shifting with the winds. Air temperatures will be conducive to 

continued sea ice growth. 



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Winds will generally be southerly through 

Thursday, then shift to northwesterly through Saturday. Sea ice will 

continue to move north out of Kotzebue Sound and the polynya off the 

northwest coast will expand to the north through Thursday before the 

thicker ice moves back toward the coast Friday and Saturday.  



-BERING SEA-



PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 16 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. 



From Saint Matthew Island west, wind flow will generally be 

southerly, which will cause the ice pack to compact and retreat 

northward 30 to 50 nm through Saturday.   



East of Saint Matthew Island, southerly winds will become westerly 

to northerly as the high moves inland. As the colder air returns, 

sea ice growth will be rapid especially in areas that recently 

became sea ice free. Overall, the ice edge is expected to advance 

southward 30 to 50 nm through Saturday.  



-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



The main ice edge extends from near Tuxedni Bay to Kalgin Island to 

near Kalifonsky.



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

high. High pressure will move over the Alaska mainland Tuesday, 

keeping northerly winds through Cook Inlet through Saturday. With 

temperatures in the single digits and teens through Saturday, sea 

ice will be in a period of growth and will likely advance south 10 

to 20 nm through Saturday. 



&&

Schreck