####018005368#### FZUS81 KCLE 172320 ICELIO Great Lakes Ice Outlook National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio 620 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2024 Active watches...warnings...and advisories on the Great Lakes can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/greatlakes/ 5 Day Ice Discussion... The recent Arctic air mass surges across the United States have allowed for substantial ice growth throughout the Great Lakes region, beyond the sheltered bays. There is ice coverage of some form along the entire southern lakeshore of Lake Superior from Duluth to Sault Ste. Marie. The lone exception are areas near the Keweenaw Peninsula and into Keweenaw Bay. For Lake Michigan, the southern half of Green Bay and the Bays De Noc are mostly ice covered and ice is forming along the north and western shorelines. Some thin ice is found along the entire Michigan shoreline of Lake Huron but greater concentrations are in Thunder Bay, Saginaw Bay, and around the Thumb of Michigan. Lake St. Clair is entirely ice covered, but the ice concentration is low and not true fast ice. The western basin of Lake Erie is substantially iced over and some ice is developing along the Ohio shoreline and in the sheltered area around Long Point. Extremely cold, below normal temperatures will continue across the Great Lakes region through much of the rest of the week. Moderate to rapid ice growth will continue to be expected across all Great Lakes with ice concentrations and thickness increasing. Winds will diminish across the region tonight and should be in a relative lull for Thursday, which could support good ice growth. A low pressure system will pass through the southern Great Lakes and winds to near gale force for Friday into Saturday could hinder ice expansion slightly across Lakes Michigan and Erie. High pressure will build from the west for the weekend and again be supportive of ice growth. Once this feature moves east early next week, temperatures will moderate slightly and become less favorable for ice development. The Great Lakes ice analysis products can be found at: http://usicecenter.gov/Products/GreatLakesHome and http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/#currentconditions MAX WIND (KNOTS) AT EACH SITE FOR THE 12 HOUR FCST PERIOD Location Tonight Thu Thu Night Fri Fri Night West Superior 320/15 010/16 010/18 010/15 300/14 Mid Superior 320/18 020/16 040/17 360/20 350/17 East Superior 320/17 040/15 040/16 010/21 360/19 North Michigan 280/13 360/13 030/15 010/15 340/19 South Michigan 270/15 340/12 360/20 340/23 320/24 North Huron 270/20 040/13 040/21 020/19 330/24 Mid Huron 270/17 280/12 050/20 020/18 340/23 South Huron 270/20 270/13 040/21 010/21 320/25 West Erie 240/20 230/14 020/15 350/19 310/19 East Erie 260/29 220/20 050/16 020/19 320/17 Central Ontario 270/31 240/18 040/29 030/25 330/22 A full graphical forecast of wind on the Great Lakes can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/greatlakes/ Temperature Forecasts for Selected Cities Location 01/18 01/19 01/20 01/21 01/22 01/23 Duluth -6 7 -3 6 -8 12 3 20 16 30 24 32 Marquette 7 17 12 17 12 20 8 23 17 30 26 33 GreenBay -1 13 5 16 0 15 0 19 15 32 28 37 Milwaukee 9 19 10 18 6 15 2 20 19 33 33 37 Chicago 18 22 16 18 7 17 2 24 20 35 31 38 Muskegon 15 21 14 21 4 22 16 27 22 36 33 38 Alpena 8 20 9 16 7 20 10 26 18 32 27 35 Detroit 14 25 18 24 5 19 7 22 14 33 31 38 Toledo 17 26 17 23 4 17 7 20 14 33 32 38 Cleveland 20 27 21 29 15 22 16 25 17 36 33 40 Buffalo 18 24 18 24 9 17 13 25 21 35 33 38 A full graphical forecast of the Great Lakes forecast temperatures can be found at http://www.weather.gov/greatlakes/ FREEZING DEGREE DAY ACCUMULATIONS AT SELECTED STATIONS COMPARED TO NORMAL CALCULATED ON Wed Jan 17: LOCATION DATE NORMAL CURRENT ---------------------------------------- DULUTH, MN JAN 16 880 446 MARQUETTE, MI JAN 15 684 295 SAU_S_MAR, MI JAN 16 505 206 GREENBAY, WI JAN 16 446 143 MILWAUKEE, WI JAN 16 202 104 CHICAGO, IL JAN 16 161 120 MUSKEGON, MI JAN 16 106 49 ALPENA, MI JAN 16 345 118 DETROIT, MI JAN 16 135 82 TOLEDO, OH JAN 16 83 76 CLEVELAND, OH JAN 16 43 60 BUFFALO, NY JAN 16 132 47 NORMAL TEMPS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES FOR Wed Jan 17 LOCATION HIGH LOW ---------------------------------------------- DULUTH,MN 21 -1 MARQUETTE,MI 22 7 GREENBAY,WI 24 7 MILWAUKEE,WI 30 17 CHICAGO,IL 30 14 MUSKEGON,MI 28 13 ALPENA,MI 26 9 DETROIT,MI 31 17 TOLEDO,OH 31 16 CLEVELAND,OH 33 19 BUFFALO,NY 31 18 $$ Sefcovic