####018005360####
FZAK80 PAFC 222251

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

1:49 PM AKST Monday 22 January 2024



FORECAST VALID...Saturday 27 January 2024



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High to moderate



SYNOPSIS...Broad areas of low pressure are expected to transit the 

north Pacific through the forecast period with a weak area of low 

pressure developing in the western Bering by Wednesday.  This low 

will dissipate quickly, ahead of high pressure developing over the 

eastern Bering Sea by Saturday. These systems will maintain 

primarily north flow across the Bering Sea through most of the week. 





The main ice edge extends from near Port Heiden to 57.85’N, 159.83’W 

to 58.55’N, 162.41’W to 59.02’N, 168.01’W, to 60.13’N, 172.43’W and 

continues in Russian waters, the ice edge is open water. 





From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Port Heiden to 77 nm west of Pilot Point to 10 nm south of Cape 

Newenham to 75 nm south of Cape Mohican to 16 nm south of Saint 

Matthew Island and continues in Russian waters.  The ice edge is 

open water. 





-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high.  Light west to southwest winds will prevail 

across the region through late in the week, before becoming light 

south to southeast by Saturday.  The light winds and air 

temperatures conducive to continued sea ice growth will allow 

polynyas to freeze over, with the ice pack generally moving with 

tides and currents through the forecast period.



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. West to southwest winds will prevail across the 

area through Thursday before becoming light northwest for the 

weekend.  Temperatures will continue to be conducive to sea ice 

growth with movement toward the coast allowing polynyas to freeze 

over with thickening ice through the period.



-BERING SEA-



PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 16 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. Northeast winds will persist through most of the 

forecast period with very cold air moving off the mainland. This 

will encourage ice movement of 20 to 30 nm south of the existing ice 

edge. Ice will form along the coast as the pack moves offshore, with 

growth peaking later in the week as northerly winds increase into 

the weekend.



-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



The main ice edge extends from near Tuxedni Bay to near Kenai.



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

moderate. High pressure will continue to influence the winds over 

south central Alaska through the week.  The high will keep 

temperatures in the single digits above and below zero through the 

period allowing sea ice to continue to thicken, with the ice edge 

gradually moving south 10 to 15 nm through Saturday.



&&

Baker