####018005457#### FZAK80 PAFC 242319 ICEAFC Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 220 PM AKST Monday 24 January 2024 FORECAST VALID...Monday 29 January 2024 ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High to Moderate SYNOPSIS...High pressure will remain over the central and northern Bering Sea and southern Chukchi Sea through Monday, with broad low pressure persisting over the high Arctic. The main storm track will remain south of the Aleutian Islands through Monday. The main ice edge extends from near Port Moller to 58 10’N 160 18’W to 58 1’N 166 3’W to 59 53’N 172 40’W to 61 57’N 176 45’W and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from near Port Moller to 65 nm southeast of Cape Newenham to 100 nm south of Cape Mendenhall to 30 nm south of Saint Matthew Island to 175 nm southwest of Gambell and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. -BEAUFORT SEA- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm- PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm- PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm- PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm- Ice covered. FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. West winds will transition to south winds briefly on Saturday, then to east winds Sunday and Monday. Sea ice movement will shift with the changing wind direction and will pick up in speed as the winds align with the Beaufort gyre current. -CHUKCHI SEA- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm- PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm- PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm- PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm- PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm- PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm- Ice covered. PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore- PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm- PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm- PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm- FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. West to southwest winds will prevail across the area through Saturday, then shift to northerly Sunday into Monday. Temperatures will continue to be conducive to sea ice growth with general movement toward the coast. -BERING SEA- PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm- PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm- PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm- PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm- PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm- PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm- PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm- PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm- PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm- PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm- PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm- PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm- Ice covered. PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm- PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm- PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm- PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm- PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm- PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island- PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-PKZ851- Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm- FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is moderate. Forecast confidence is moderate. Northeast winds will persist through at least Saturday. A series of small, weak lows may move east across the central Bering Sea toward the Alaska Peninsula Saturday through Monday. If those lows do develop, winds will be variable as the lows move east across the area. Cold air in place along with the northeasterly winds will keep the ice pack drifting southwest. Expect the ice edge to move southwest 30 to 45 nm through Monday. Polynyas will continue to form off southwest-facing coastlines, but will quickly fill in with new ice. -COOK INLET- PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- The main ice edge extends from near Tuxedni Bay to north of Ninilchik. FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is moderate. High pressure will continue to influence the winds over south central Alaska through the week, then a low will move north through the Gulf of Alaska and across the southern mainland Sunday into Monday. The high will keep temperatures in the single digits above and below zero through at least Saturday. The ice edge is expected to move south approximately 10 nm through Monday. && Schreck/Lawson