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FZAK80 PAFC 072309

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 

209 PM AKST Wednesday 7 February 2024



FORECAST VALID...Monday 12 February 2024



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate to high



SYNOPSIS...Low pressure over the central Bering Sea will weaken as 

it gradually moves north through Friday. Another low will move north 

across the western Alaska mainland Friday through Sunday, then into 

the Chukchi Sea Monday.



The main ice edge extends from near Port Moller to 56 49’N 159 33’W 

to 57 36’N 159 36’W to 61 5’N 177 21’W and continues in Russian 

waters. The ice edge is open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Port Moller to 35 nm west of Port Heiden to 52 nm northwest of 

Port Heiden to 225 nm southwest of Gambell and continues in Russian 

waters. The ice edge is open water.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high.  Winds will generally be out of the east and 

northeast through Monday. Little movement of the ice pack to the 

west and southwest is expected through the weekend.



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. East to north winds will prevail across the area 

through Saturday, then shift to north to northwest Sunday into 

Monday.  Temperatures will continue to be conducive to sea ice 

growth with general movement away from the west-facing coasts 

through Saturday then away from north-facing coasts Sunday and 

Monday.



-BERING SEA-



PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. 



West of St. Matthew Island, northerly winds will persist through 

Monday, allowing the ice pack to continue to advance southward 20 to 

40 nm through Monday. 



East of St. Matthew Island, winds will shift from southwest and 

south today to easterly then northerly Friday into Saturday. As the 

next low moves north, winds will become southwesterly. These 

shifting winds will result in significant movement of the ice pack, 

and some additional melting during periods of southerly winds. 

Overall, the ice edge in the eastern Bering Sea is expected to 

retreat 20 to 30 nm. 



-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ730-West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-

PKZ738-Shelikof Strait-

PKZ741-Kachemak Bay-

PKZ742-Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-



The main ice edge extends from near Kamishak Bay to near Anchor 

Point. There is also sea ice within Kachemak Bay.



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

moderate. Air temperatures will moderate across the Cook Inlet 

region through Monday, with the warmest temperatures expected on 

Friday and Saturday before dropping back into the 20s again. These 

temperatures will help slow the growth of sea ice, though northerly 

winds through Saturday will continue to move the existing sea ice 

south within the inlet. As winds become light and variable Sunday 

and Monday, sea ice will move with tides and currents. Overall the 

ice edge is expected to move less than 10 nm north or south through 

Monday. 



&&



Schreck