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FZAK80 PAFC 142319

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 

218 PM AKST Wednesday 14 February 2024



FORECAST VALID...Monday 19 February 2024



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate to high



SYNOPSIS...A series of low pressure systems move north across the 

western Bering Sea through Monday. High pressure over the Alaska 

mainland will influence winds along the eastern Bering, Chukchi and 

Beaufort Seas through the period.



The main ice edge extends from near Port Moller to 57 72’N 157 81’W 

to 58 12’N 162 55’W to 58 45’N 166 92’W to 59 30’N 173 44’W to 60 

92’N 179 27’W and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open 

water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Port Moller to 12 nm west of Pilot Point to 36 nm south of Cape 

Newenham to 82 nm south of Cape Mendenhall to 72 nm south of Saint 

Matthew Island to 300 nm southwest of Gambell and continues in 

Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is moderate.  West winds will prevail through Thursday, 

then shift to the northwest on Friday and become light north to 

northeast through the weekend. Expect the ice pack to move with 

these winds, with any polynyas formed through Thursday quickly re-

freezing after winds shift to the north.



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is moderate. West winds will shift to the north by 

Friday, with north to northeast winds continuing across the area 

through Monday. Temperatures will continue to be conducive to sea 

ice growth with general movement toward the south and west. 



-BERING SEA-



PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. As a series of fronts are expected to cross the eastern 

Bering Sea, with north winds prevailing during the week, then 

shifting to the south and southeast by the weekend into Monday. This 

active weather pattern will cause sea ice to advance and retreat, 

with the ice edge expected to only advance 10 to 20 nm southwest 

through Monday.  Any polynyas that form later in the week along 

south facing coastlines will quickly fill in with new ice as winds 

shift to the south and southeast. For those interacting with 

shorefast ice, sections of the ice may break away during times when 

winds are blowing from land to sea.



-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ730-West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-

PKZ738-Shelikof Strait-

PKZ741-Kachemak Bay-

PKZ742-Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-



The main ice edge extends from Kamishak Bay to near Kenai. There is 

also sea ice within Kachemak Bay. 



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

moderate. North to northeast winds with air temperatures in the 20s 

and 30s are likely to continue across the region through the week 

and into the weekend.  The warming temperatures will cause some of 

the newest ice to melt or for ice growth to slow or stop across the 

region from Kalgin Island north. 



&&



Baker