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FZAK80 PAFC 162250

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 

150 PM AKST Friday 16 February 2024



FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 21 February 2024



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate to high



SYNOPSIS...A series of low pressure systems will influence much of 

the central and western Bering Sea through the weekend, before 

slowly moving into the eastern Bering Sea by next week.



The main ice edge extends from near Port Moller to 57 65’N 158 01’W 

to 57 81’N 162 09’W to 58 5’N 168 27’W to 59 77’N 173 2’W to 61 10’N 

179 04’W and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Port Moller to 17 nm west of Pilot Point to 50 nm southeast of 

Cape Newenham to 107 nm south of Cape Mohican to 40 nm south of 

Saint Matthew Island to 256 nm southwest of Gambell and continues in 

Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is moderate. North to northeast winds this weekend will 

shift to the east and strengthen by early next week.  Expect the ice 

pack to move with these winds, with polynyas forming along west 

facing coastlines quickly filling in with new ice. 



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is moderate. North winds will strengthen over the 

weekend, shifting to the east by Monday.  Temperatures will continue 

to be conducive to sea ice growth, with any polynyas forming along 

west facing coastlines quickly filling in with new ice. 



-BERING SEA-



PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. High pressure influencing the eastern Bering Sea will 

shift to the east and weaken over the weekend.  Winds will initially 

decrease and shift to the south, as a series of low pressure systems 

transit the Bering Sea.  By Monday, south winds will increase and 

pull warmer air into the region. This active weather pattern will 

cause sea ice to advance and retreat, with the ice edge expected to 

only advance 10 to 20 nm to the south through Wednesday.



-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ730-West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-

PKZ738-Shelikof Strait-

PKZ741-Kachemak Bay-

PKZ742-Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-



The main ice edge extends from south of Tuxedni to near Kenai. 



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

high. Light north to northeast winds, with air temperatures in the 

20s and 30s are likely to continue across the region through the 

weekend, ahead of a frontal system expected to move into the inlet 

by Monday.  Winds will shift to the south and increase, with warming 

temperatures limiting or stopping ice growth through the middle of 

next week from Kalgin Island north.   



&&



Baker