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FZAK80 PAFC 212343

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 

241 PM AKST Wednesday 21 February 2024





FORECAST VALID...Monday 26 February 2024 



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate



SYNOPSIS...A large and strong low pressure system in the central 

Bering Sea sends a front to the Bering Strait on Wednesday evening 

then slowly weakens in the Bering Strait region through Saturday. 

Sunday into Monday another system moves from the southwest Bering 

Sea to the Kuskokwim Delta.  



The main ice edge extends from near the Nushagak Peninsula to 58 

29’N 168 2’W to 59 46’N 173 25’W to 60 51’N 177 45’W and continues 

west in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.





From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from the 

Nushagak Peninsula to 105 nm south of Cape Mohican to 35 nm south of 

Saint Matthew Island to 250 nm southwest of Gambell.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. North to east winds remain through the period. 

Expect a shear zone to form along the edge of the shorefast ice and 

general movement with the currents of Beaufort Gyre. 





-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Mostly northeasterly to easterly winds will 

remain through the forecast period. Expect a polynya to form along 

the northwest coast of Alaska from Utqiagvik through Cape Lisburne. 

There is potential to see some weak southerly winds toward the 

Bering Strait and Kotzebue Sound, but shorefast ice should remain 

intact in these areas. 



-BERING SEA-



PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. A large storm in the Bering Sea is currently retreating 

the ice from Saint Matthew Island eastward and will continue through 

Friday. Expect and additional 20 to 30 nm of retreat. Another system 

follows Sunday and Monday, bringing more southerly winds but a much 

colder air mass than currently. Retreat and compaction against the 

coast will continue from the Kuskokwim Delta through the Nushagak 

Peninsula. West of Saint Matthew Island, expect the ice edge to 

advance 20 to 30 nm southward. Polynyas will form along south facing 

coastlines. 







-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ730-West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-

PKZ738-Shelikof Strait-

PKZ741-Kachemak Bay-

PKZ742-Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-



The main ice edge extends from south of Tuxedni to near Kenai. 



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

moderate. The melting and retreating regime will continue into 

Thursday as southeasterly chinook winds impact the Inlet. Over the 

weekend, colder air will filter back in with light offshore winds 

which will encourage much of the upper Inlet to freeze with grease 

ice in addition to the existing young and first year thin ice. 

Expect the ice edge to retreat and the pack to thin. Uncertainty is 

higher than usual into next week with an active storm track in the 

area.  



&&



Lawson