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Sea Ice Outlook for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 

National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 

1154 AM AKST Friday 23 February 2024



...FEBRURARY 2024 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK...





The past month was one of transition across The Great Land as 

weather patterns shifted from colder than normal arctic air to warm 

intrusions and Chinook winds from the northern Pacific Ocean. The 

pattern change, including a storm track from the north Pacific into 

the Bering Sea is more of what we would expect from El Nino 

conditions. Overall, there was a large melting and retreat from the 

Alaska Peninsula through Bristol Bay as well as from Saint Matthew 

Island eastward through the Kuskokwim Delta. Colder air and 

northerly wind have remained west of Saint Matthew Island leaving 

the ice edge further south in that area. 





Looking ahead to late-winter and the start of break-up. The extent 

of further freeze-up will depend on the prevailing storm track over 

the next month. Expect the ice edge in the Bering Sea to be highly 

variable. Increasing daylight will continue to make growing ice more 

difficult through the end of the season. El Nino conditions are 

expected to transition to ENSO-neutral into spring.









Detailed information can be found in each pertinent section below.





...FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA...





For the ice edge to reach Saint Paul Island this season, several 

consecutive weeks of consistent northerly flow would have to happen. 

The ice edge is not expected to reach Saint Paul Island this season 

but if it happens it will be brief and late in the season. 





...FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR COOK INLET...



The shift to more of an El Nino storm track into the Bering Sea has 

brought a several week period of Chinook winds to the Cook Inlet 

region. As such, ice coverage has significantly reduced over the 

last two weeks. As we experienced such a large temperature 

fluctuation during the month, analog years were difficult to come 

by. 





There may be a brief period of re-freeze as cold Interior air comes 

back over the region late February into early March, but freeze up 

looks to be over for the year. 







...BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR COOK INLET...





South of Kalgin Island is expected to be sea ice free during the 

third week of March.





South of the Forelands is expected to be sea ice free during the 

last week of March.





From the Forelands to Fire Island, three tenths concentration is 

expected during the first week of April. Sea ice free conditions are 

expected by the middle of April.





Turnagain Arm is expected to be sea ice free by the first week of 

April.





Knik Arm is expected to reach three-tenths then be sea ice free by 

the third week of April.





Cook Inlet is expected to be sea ice free during the third week of 

April. 





...BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA...





For Bristol Bay, while sea ice concentration will continue to be 

variable through the remainder of the season, the last time it is 

expected to decrease to three-tenths concentration is the third week 

of March. Bristol Bay is expected to be sea ice free for the season 

around early-April.





For Kuskokwim Bay, the shorefast ice is typically the last ice 

within the bay to melt. That ice is expected to no longer be 

shorefast by the end of April. Sea ice within Kuskokwim Bay is 

expected to reach three-tenths concentration around mid-April and be 

sea ice free during the first week of May. 





For Etolin Strait, sea ice is expected to reach three tenths 

concentration by the end of April.



For Etolin Strait to Cape Romanzof, Ice will no longer be shorefast 

during the second half of April.  Three-tenths coverage is expected 

during the first half of May. Ice free conditions are expected 

during the second half of May.



For Cape Romanzof to Kwikpak, ice is no longer expected to be 

shorefast by the end of May. Three-tenths coverage is expected by 

the end of May. 



For Kwikpak to Unalakleet, ice is no longer expected to be shorefast 

by the last week of May.



For Shaktoolik, less than three tenths is expected during the second 

half of May. 



Around Norton Bay, ice is no longer expected to be shorefast during 

the last week of May.



For Golovin Bay, ice is no longer expected to be shorefast during 

the second half of May. Less than three-tenths coverage is expected 

by the last week of May. Ice free conditions could happen by the end 

of May but is more likely during the beginning of June. 



Along the Nome coast, dates of the last shorefast ice are highly 

variable from May to June and will depend on the prevailing storm 

track and air temperatures associated with the systems. Expect ice 

to no longer be shorefast by mid-May. Three-tenths coverage is 

expected by the end of May. Ice free conditions are possible by the 

end of May but are more likely during the first part of June.



For Port Clarence, ice could no longer be shorefast by the end of 

May but is more likely during the first half of June. 



For the Bering Sea south of 60N, ice free conditions are expected by 

the end of May. 





...BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA...



For Wales to Shishmaref, ice is no longer expected to be shorefast 

by the end of May.





$$ 

Lawson