####018005616####
FZAK80 PAFC 262358

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 

257 PM AKST Monday 26 February 2024



FORECAST VALID...Saturday 2 March 2024 



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High



SYNOPSIS...While broad high pressure builds over the Bering Sea, 

Chukchi Sea, and Beaufort Sea this week, a compact and weak low will 

track southeast near the ice edge Tuesday into Wednesday. A series 

of lows will impact the southern Bering Sea Thursday through 

Saturday.



The main ice edge extends from near Egegik to 58 43'N 168 13'W to 60 

5'N 171 39'W to 59 48'N 172 27'W to 60 55'N 176 48'W and continues 

west in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Egegik to 95 nm south of Cape Mohican to 130 nm west-southwest 

of Cape Mohican to 35 nm south of Saint Matthew Island to 220 nm 

southwest of Gambell and continues west in Russian waters. The ice 

edge is open water.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Westerly winds will persist into Thursday, then 

gradually become southwest through Friday. Light northerly winds 

return on Saturday as high pressure builds from the west. Expect the 

ice pack to move with these wind directions overall. 



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. West winds will become southerly to 

southwesterly Wednesday into Thursday, then back to westerly again 

late Thursday through Saturday. Polynyas are expected to form off 

north-facing coastlines Wednesday into Thursday, otherwise the ice 

pack will gradually move east toward the Alaska coastline. 





-BERING SEA-



PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. Overall, winds will be northerly through the forecast 

period and sea ice will be in a growth state. The ice edge is 

expected to advance south 10 to 20 nm from St. Matthew Island west 

and 40 to 60 nm east of St. Matthew Island. The greatest advance 

will likely be south of Nunivak Island and within Bristol Bay. 

Polynyas may briefly form off south-facing shores, but will quickly 

fill in with new ice.



For those interacting with shorefast ice off south-facing 

coastlines, sections of the ice may break away during times when 

winds are blowing from land to sea. 



-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ730-West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-

PKZ738-Shelikof Strait-

PKZ741-Kachemak Bay-

PKZ742-Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-



The main ice edge extends from Kamishak Bay to near Kenai. 



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

high. Winds will be northerly through Saturday, and across the upper 

inlet will be light and variable. With air temperatures ranging from 

the single digits below zero to the teens above zero, sea ice will 

grow especially throughout upper Cook Inlet through the week. Since 

the main area of sea ice within the inlet is in the lower part of 

the inlet, the ice edge will not change much through Saturday. 



&&



Schreck