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FZAK80 PAFC 020001

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 

300 PM AKST Friday 1 March 2024



FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 6 March 2024 



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High



SYNOPSIS...High pressure sits over the mainland with low pressures 

systems in the southwest Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska. Between 

these features a front stretches across the ice edge in the Bering 

Sea. The front will push northward from the Bering Strait through 

Norton Sound.





The main ice edge extends from near Port Moller to 57 26’N 159 1’W 

to 57 28’N 164 55’W to 58 17’N 168 52’W to 59 4’N 170 12’W to 59 

45’N 174 25’W to 60 48’N 178 32’W and continues in Russian waters. 

The ice edge is marginal strips. 



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Port Moller 45 nm southwest of Pilot Point to 115 nm southwest 

of Cape Newenham to 125 nm south of Cape Mohican to 55 nm southwest 

of Saint Matthew Island to 260 nm southwest of Gambell.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Westerly to southwesterly winds will persist 

into Saturday. Light northeasterly winds return on Sunday. Expect 

the ice pack to move with these wind directions overall. 



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Southeasterly winds will increase over the 

weekend. Polynyas are expected to form off north-facing coastlines 

Saturday through Monday.



-BERING SEA-



PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is high. 



Easterly winds will transition to southerly over the weekend. The 

ice edge will enter a period of retreat. Winds will not be very 

strong, and the air mass is not overly warm for a southerly 

direction. Expect the ice edge to retreat, 15 to 25 nm through 

Wednesday.





Otherwise expect polynyas to form along west facing coastlines, 

especially from the Yukon Delta through Norton Bay. Shorefast ice in 

these area will be vulnerable to break-off. 





-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ730-West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-

PKZ738-Shelikof Strait-

PKZ741-Kachemak Bay-

PKZ742-Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-



The main ice edge extends from Kamishak Bay to near Kenai. 



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

high. Winds will be northerly through Wednesday. Air temperatures 

will moderate as a low pressure system brings warmer air cloud cover 

to the region. However, the ice edge will remain fairly steady 

state. Expect the ice from each Anchor Point to Kenai to melt and 

retreat. Easterly winds through Turnagain Arm will melt ice in the 

arm as well. 





&&



Lawson