####018005316####
FZAK80 PAFC 082348

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 

247 PM AKST Friday 8 March 2024



FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 13 March 2024 



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High



SYNOPSIS...High pressure sits over the southern Chukchi Sea while 

low pressure systems sit in the Gulf of Alaska and in the southwest 

Bering Sea. Several systems will move from west to east across the 

Aleutians through Wednesday. 



The main ice edge extends from near Port Moller to 57 35’N 159 15’W 

to 57 59’N 164 20’W to 59 31’N 170 24’W to 60 4’N 174 16’W to 61 2’N 

175 42’W to 60 46’N 178 24’W and continues in Russian waters. The 

ice edge is open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Port Moller to 75 nm west of Pilot Point  to 80 nm southwest of 

Cape Newenham to 100 nm southwest of Cape Mohican to 45 nm southwest 

of Saint Matthew Island to 260 nm southwest of Gambell and continues 

in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Light westerly winds will remain through 

Tuesday. Expect ice to move to the east around 5 nm/day. Winds 

should return to northeasterly on Wednesday.



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Generally north winds will continue over the 

Chukchi Sea ice pack through Wednesday. Polynyas are expected to 

form off south-facing coastlines. Otherwise the ice pack will 

gradually move south.



-BERING SEA-



PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is high. Winds over the main ice pack in Alaska waters will 

generally be northerly through Wednesday. These winds and cold 

temperatures will allow the ice pack to quickly drift south and 

polynyas will likely form and quickly fill in with new ice off south-

facing coastlines. The ice edge is expected to advance south 40 to 

60 nm through Wednesday.



-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ730-West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-

PKZ738-Shelikof Strait-

PKZ741-Kachemak Bay-

PKZ742-Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-



The main ice edge extends from Kamishak Bay to near Anchor Point. 



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

high. Winds will be northerly overall through Wednesday, though 

there will be several periods of easterly winds through Turnagain 

Arm. Air temperatures will continue to be in the teens to low 30s 

over the region through the forecast period, which will slow down 

ice growth and even allow for some melting especially during periods 

of sunshine. The ice edge may retreat up to 20 nm by Wednesday, but 

overall we expect the existing sea ice to move with the tides and 

currents.



&&



Lawson