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FZAK80 PAFC 152313

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 

313 PM AKST Friday 15 March 2024



FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 20 March 2024 



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High



SYNOPSIS...High pressure stretches from the arctic southward into 

the western Bering Sea. Two weak low pressure systems will move into 

the Gulf of Alaska over the weekend. Several stronger lows and 

fronts will move into the central Bering Sea through Wednesday. '



The main ice edge extends from near Cold Bay to 57 23’N 159 58’W to 

56 28’N 163 33’W to 57 8’N 168 41’W to 61 8’N 179 3’W and continues 

in Russian waters. The ice edge is strips.





From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Cold Bay to 50 nm northwest of Port Heiden to 75 nm north of 

Cold Bay to 45 nm east of Saint Paul to 270 nm southwest of Gambell 

and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is strips.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Light easterly winds will prevail through the 

week. Expect ice to generally move from west to east with the 

currents of the Beaufort gyre. 



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Northerly winds will continue through Monday, 

keeping much of the pack in place with little movement. Easterly 

winds will pick up Tuesday and Wednesday. Expect polynyas to open 

along west-facing coastlines and increasing chances that shorefast 

ice will break-off. 



-BERING SEA-



PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate to high. Light northerly winds will continue through 

Sunday. Expect the ice edge to continue to advance 5-10 nm/day. On 

Monday, a low pressure system and front enter the central Bering 

Sea, bringing moderate to strong southerly winds to the ice edge. It 

is quite possible that we are at maximum ice extent for the year.  



For the eastern Bering Sea, ice will slow it's southerly advance 

over the next two days on the order of 5-10 nm/day at most. On 

Monday, continuing through Wednesday, strong southerly winds will 

retreat the ice edge 20 to 30 nm. 



For the central Bering Sea, specically the Pribilofs to Saint 

Matthew Island area, uncertainty is much higher. It is possible that 

some of the ice strips make it to Saint Paul in the next two days. 

Beyond the weekend, the position of the ice edge will depend on the 

exact track of the low pressure center which is forecast to transit 

roughly from the Pribilofs to Saint Matthew Island. To the east of 

the low center will be retreat while there will be advance west of 

the low center. 



For the ice edge to the west of Saint Matthew Island, expect a 

period of advance of 15 to 25 nm through Wednesday. 





-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ730-West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-

PKZ738-Shelikof Strait-

PKZ741-Kachemak Bay-

PKZ742-Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-



The main ice edge extends from Kamishak Bay to near Anchor Point. 



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

high. Winds will be northerly overall through Wednesday, but a 

brief period of southerly winds is possible on Monday. Air 

temperatures will continue to be in the mid 20s to mid to upper 30s 

over the region through the forecast period, which will slow down 

ice growth and begin a period of melting. Toward Wednesday, a much 

warmer air mass and clear sky is forecasted which will really begin 

the break-up season. 



&&



Lawson