####018005719####
FZAK80 PAFC 222335

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 

335 PM AKST Friday 27 March 2024



FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 27 March 2024



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High



SYNOPSIS...A North Pacific low tracks to the Bristol Bay and Kuskokwim 

Delta areas through Monday. Another low will develop over the 

central Bering Sea on Tuesday and weakens through Wednesday. 



The main ice edge extends from near Port Heiden to 57 48’N 158 32’W 

to 58 13’N 166 41’W to 58 2’N 169 42’W to 61 11’N 178 39’W and 

continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Port Heiden to 52 nm north of Port Heiden to 145 nm west-

southwest of Cape Newenham to 53 nm north of Saint Paul Island to 

245 nm southwest of Gambell and continues in Russian waters. The ice 

edge is open water.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Winds will become southwesterly on Saturday and 

Sunday. Vulnerable shorefast ice will be at risk of breaking off. 

Winds become northwesterly Monday through Wednesday with much colder 

air returning to the region.



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Winds will become westerly Saturday and will 

gradually shift to northerly by Monday. Winds will shift 

northeasterly by Wednesday. Expect polynyas to open along south 

facing coastlines. 



-BERING SEA-



PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate to high. 



For the eastern Bering Sea, a front entering the southern Bering Sea 

will bring a period of easterly winds which will continue the 

retreat the ice edge away from the Alaska Peninsula and toward the 

Kuskokwim Delta. Expect polynyas to form along the north and west 

facing coastlines. Shorefast ice that is not attached to the ocean 

floor will be at risk of breaking off. 



West of Nunivak Island, northerly winds will develop  Saturday 

through Wednesday which will advance 50 to 70 nm. Near Saint Paul 

Island, southerly winds may return Tuesday into Wednesday, which 

would limit sea ice advance to 40 to 50 nm before beginning to 

retreat again up to 20 to 30 nm for Tuesday and Wednesday. Strips of 

sea ice may once again reach Saint Paul Island briefly before 

retreat begins again. Expect polynyas to form along the southern 

facing coastlines. 



-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ730-West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-

PKZ738-Shelikof Strait-PKZ741-Kachemak Bay-

PKZ742-Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-



The main ice edge extends from Kamishak Bay to near Anchor Point. 



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

High. Generally light northerly flow will persist through Monday. 

Seasonal melt of existing ice will continue as air temperatures 

remain in the upper 20s to upper 30s through Wednesday. Melting will 

generally continue through Wednesday but will slow during cloudy 

periods. Overall expect the ice edge to retreat 20 to 30 nm through 

Wednesday with continued areal thinning of the remaining pack ice.







&&



Schreck