####018006378####
FZAK80 PAFC 292230

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 

227 PM AKST Friday 29 March 2024



FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 3 April 2024



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate to High



SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system near the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta 

weakens in place while a new stronger north Pacific system moves 

inland near Bristol Bay on Saturday. A front moves from south to 

north across the Bering Sea Monday through Wednesday followed by a 

strong low in the western Bering Sea Wednesday.



The main ice edge extends from near Naknek to 57 53’N 160 28’W to 58 

20’N 168 25’W to 58N 170 9’W to 59 41’N 174 22’W to 60 35’N 179 7’W 

and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.





From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Naknek to 70 nm southeast of Cape Newenham to 115 nm south of 

Cape Mohican to 45 nm north of Saint Paul Island to 60 nm southwest 

of Saint Matthew Island to 280 nm southwest of Gambell and continues 

in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Easterly winds remain until Monday keeping ice 

moving from east to west 5-10 nm/day. Monday and Tuesday, 

southerlies briefly impact the area which could break off some 

vulnerable shorefast ice. Easterly winds return on Wednesday.



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. North to northwest winds continue through 

Monday. Stronger northwest winds impacting the Wales to Espenberg 

coastline could increase the chances for ice shoves in that area. 

Southeasterly winds return Tuesday and Wednesday which runs the risk 

of shorefast break-off for the northern Seward Peninsula. Otherwise 

a polynya will open along the northwest coast. 



-BERING SEA-



PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate.



For the eastern far eastern Bering Sea/Bristol Bay area. A storm 

tracking up the Alaska Peninsula will make sea ice highly variable 

in motion through Sunday with periods of both retreat and advance of 

5-15 nm. Late Sunday through Monday will bring a steadier period of 

advance of around 10-15 nm. Tuesday and Wednesday a strong front 

will bring southwesterly winds and retreat the ice edge toward the 

mainland 20 to 30 nm. 



For the central and western Bering Sea, a period of northerly winds 

and advance is in store through the weekend. Expect the ice edge to 

advance on the order of 10-15 nm/day through Sunday. Late Sunday 

into Monday a stronger north Pacific front swings in which will 

bring strong southerlies to the ice edge and retreat it to the north 

30 to 40 nm. 









-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ730-West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-

PKZ738-Shelikof Strait-

PKZ741-Kachemak Bay-

PKZ742-Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-



The main ice edge extends from near the West Foreland to Kalgin 

Island to near the East Foreland. The ice edge is open water.





FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

high. Seasonal melt of existing ice will continue as air 

temperatures remain in the upper 20s to upper 30s. Winds will remain 

fairly light through Saturday, so ice will generally move with tides 

and currents.



A front on Saturday will bring a warmer air mass, stronger Chinook easterly winds, 

followed by a period of southerlies on Sunday. Areas of pack ice will remain

mostly in the upper Inlet, though decreasing in area. Expect the ice 

edge overall to retreat to the north 30 to 40 nm through Sunday. The 

air mass will cool behind the weekend system which will slow the 

melt of remaining ice. It is possible that areas of pack ice will 

all turn into marginal ice by Wednesday.



&&



Lawson