####018005626#### FZAK80 PAFC 012354 ICEAFC Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 354 PM AKDT Friday 1 April 2024 FORECAST VALID...Saturday 6 April 2024 ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High to Moderate SYNOPSIS...A strong low will move into the southwest Bering Sea tonight, then weaken as it moves north toward the Bering Strait. Another low will move into the southwest Bering Sea Friday into Saturday. The main ice edge extends from near Naknek to 57 35’N 168 50’W to 56 54’N 170 21’W to 60 18’N 179 54’W and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from near Naknek to 50 nm northeast of Saint Paul Island to 20 nm southwest of St. Paul Island to 305 nm southwest of Gambell and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. -BEAUFORT SEA- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm- PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm- PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm- PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm- Ice covered. FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Westerly to southwesterly winds will persist through early Wednesday, then winds will shift to easterly through Saturday. Overall, the ice pack is expected to move west 20 to 30 nm through Saturday. -CHUKCHI SEA- PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm- PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm- PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm- PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm- PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm- PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm- PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm- PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm- PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm- Ice covered. FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Winds will shift from southerly to easterly Tuesday through Wednesday as a low moves north into the Chukchi Sea. As the low moves even farther north, winds will shift to westerly. Expect sea ice to move with these winds overall. Sea ice will move away from the west and north facing coastlines, then move back east toward the coast once winds shift to westerly. -BERING SEA- PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm- PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm- PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm- PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm- PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm- PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm- PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm- PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm- PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm- PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm- PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm- PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm- PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm- PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters- PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island- Ice covered. PKZ412-Bering Sea 171W to 180 and North of 56N- PKZ414-Bering Sea East of 171W- PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm- PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm- PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm- PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm- PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm- PKZ766-Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters- FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is moderate. Winds will be southerly across most of the Bering Sea through Wednesday, then westerly Thursday into Friday. Southerly winds will return to the western and central Bering Sea Friday into Saturday. Overall, expect the ice edge to retreat 50 to 70 nm through Saturday. When winds are blowing from sea to land, there will likely be water on top of the ice. Some vulnerable shorefast ice may break up and ice may pile up on shorelines especially north of the Yukon Delta. -COOK INLET- PKZ730-West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay- PKZ738-Shelikof Strait- PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- PKZ741-Kachemak Bay- PKZ742-Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede- The main ice edge extends from near the Susitna River Delta to Point Possession. The ice edge is open water. FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Air temperatures will be in the upper 20s to mid-30s through Saturday and winds will remain fairly light through Saturday. While most of the sea ice has melted throughout Cook Inlet, there may be periods especially during the overnight hours where new ice is able to form temporarily as water temperatures are still primed for sea ice formation. Any new sea ice formation will likely melt as temperatures climb near or above freezing. && Schreck ####018005630#### FZAK80 PAFC 012355 CCA ICEAFC Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 354 PM AKDT Monday 1 April 2024 FORECAST VALID...Saturday 6 April 2024 ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High to Moderate SYNOPSIS...A strong low will move into the southwest Bering Sea tonight, then weaken as it moves north toward the Bering Strait. Another low will move into the southwest Bering Sea Friday into Saturday. The main ice edge extends from near Naknek to 57 35’N 168 50’W to 56 54’N 170 21’W to 60 18’N 179 54’W and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from near Naknek to 50 nm northeast of Saint Paul Island to 20 nm southwest of St. Paul Island to 305 nm southwest of Gambell and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. -BEAUFORT SEA- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm- PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm- PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm- PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm- Ice covered. FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Westerly to southwesterly winds will persist through early Wednesday, then winds will shift to easterly through Saturday. Overall, the ice pack is expected to move west 20 to 30 nm through Saturday. -CHUKCHI SEA- PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm- PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm- PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm- PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm- PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm- PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm- PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm- PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm- PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm- Ice covered. FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Winds will shift from southerly to easterly Tuesday through Wednesday as a low moves north into the Chukchi Sea. As the low moves even farther north, winds will shift to westerly. Expect sea ice to move with these winds overall. Sea ice will move away from the west and north facing coastlines, then move back east toward the coast once winds shift to westerly. -BERING SEA- PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm- PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm- PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm- PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm- PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm- PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm- PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm- PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm- PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm- PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm- PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm- PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm- PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm- PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters- PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island- Ice covered. PKZ412-Bering Sea 171W to 180 and North of 56N- PKZ414-Bering Sea East of 171W- PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm- PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm- PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm- PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm- PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm- PKZ766-Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters- FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is moderate. Winds will be southerly across most of the Bering Sea through Wednesday, then westerly Thursday into Friday. Southerly winds will return to the western and central Bering Sea Friday into Saturday. Overall, expect the ice edge to retreat 50 to 70 nm through Saturday. When winds are blowing from sea to land, there will likely be water on top of the ice. Some vulnerable shorefast ice may break up and ice may pile up on shorelines especially north of the Yukon Delta. -COOK INLET- PKZ730-West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay- PKZ738-Shelikof Strait- PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- PKZ741-Kachemak Bay- PKZ742-Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede- The main ice edge extends from near the Susitna River Delta to Point Possession. The ice edge is open water. FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Air temperatures will be in the upper 20s to mid-30s through Saturday and winds will remain fairly light through Saturday. While most of the sea ice has melted throughout Cook Inlet, there may be periods especially during the overnight hours where new ice is able to form temporarily as water temperatures are still primed for sea ice formation. Any new sea ice formation will likely melt as temperatures climb near or above freezing. && Schreck