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FXUS01 KWBC 300731

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

330 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024



Valid 12Z Tue Apr 30 2024 - 12Z Thu May 02 2024



...Severe Weather and Excessive Rainfall concerns for parts of the

Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Great Plains through

mid-week...



...Critical Fire Weather potential over portions of the Southern

High Plains on Wednesday...



...Cool and snowy in the Northwest; warmer across the Central and

Eastern U.S....





A pair of low pressure systems will bring showers and thunderstorm

activity to parts of the Central and Eastern U.S. respectively

today. The Central U.S. system will progress quickly through the

Plains and into the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley today/tonight.

The Storm Prediction Center issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of

Severe Thunderstorms for parts of the Middle Missouri Valley into

the Central Plains for this afternoon/evening where very large

hail, severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected. Some

storms may produce heavy rain with high rates, which is why a

Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash

Flooding is in effect for parts of southeastern Kansas into

northeastern Oklahoma. Another area of low pressure is forecast to

develop out of the Southern Plains, and generate another round of

storms across the Plains and Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. SPC

issued another Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms over much of

central Kansas and northern Oklahoma while we have a broader

Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall extending from northeastern

Texas up into eastern Nebraska and much of Iowa. A few tornadoes,

very large hail and damaging winds are possible from any severe

storms that occur.



Meanwhile, a slow moving mid-level low anchored over the Northwest

will be the reason why they experience below average temperatures

over the next few days. Embedded shortwave energy will support

high elevation snow for the Cascades and Northern Rockies, where

snowfall accumulations will be in the general range of 6-12 inches

with isolated higher amounts possible by Thursday morning. An

amplifying ridge over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast will support

above average temperatures across most of the eastern third of the

country over the next several days. Strong southerly flow into the

Plains beneath the right exit region of the upper trough will

promote warming across the region over the next few days. Lee

cyclogenesis will contribute to dry and windy conditions across

portions of the Southwest and Southern High Plains, which will

support a Critical Risk of Fires on Wednesday.





Kebede





Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php



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