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FXCA20 KWBC 301705

PMDCA 



TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

105 PM EDT TUE APR 30 2024



FORECAST BULLETIN 30 APR 2024 AT 1700 UTC: THE MJO CONTINUES TO

FAVOR CONVERGENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE.

UNDER THIS PATTERN...EXPECT AREAS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY

PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN MOSTLY DISCRETE IN EXTENSION.



A CELL OF THE SUBEQUITORIAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO LIMIT THE

PREGRESSION OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IN MEXICO. FURTHER

EAST... THE PRESISTENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT THE

AMPLIFICATION OF A MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN. A POLAR

TROUGH MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST USA BY TUESDAY EVENING...

RESULTING IN A DEEPENING OF THE PREXISTING TROUGH. BY WEDNESDAY

MORNING... A WEAK MID-UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND MOVES

OVER SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE

RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION AND AS SUCH THERE ARE SLIGHT DISAGREEMENTS

WITH THE SHAPE AND LOCATION OF THE TROUGH AXIS.BY TUESDAY EVENING

A STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECASTED TO EXTENDS FROM 20N 60W TO

NORTH/CENTRAL CUBA WTIH PRECIPITATBLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF

50MM. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF

THE GREATER ANTILLES...GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND

THURSDAY. INTERRACTIONS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT

THE FORMATION OF A FRONTAL WAVE NORTH OF THE PUERTO RICO BY

THURSDAY EVENING WHILE THE FRONT LOSES DEFINITION IN AREAS TO THE

WEST.



IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ON TUESDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN

NORTHEAST CUBA...WHILE CENTRAL CUBA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.

THE BAHAMAS...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA...CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF

20-35MM. THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SLIGHT

RISK OF SEVERE/SQUALLY WEATHER. PUERTO RICO CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF

20-35MM. ON WEDNESDAY...AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED

WITH THE ENHANCEMENT OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH

REACHING THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS...AND NORTHERN

HISPANIOLA. THEY CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM WITH A MARGINAL RISK

OF SEVERE/SQUALLY WEATHER. EASTERN CUBA CAN ALSO EXPECT A MARGINAL

RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...WITH MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. JAMAICA CAN

EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS. PUERTO RICO AND SOUTHWESTERN HISPANIOLA

CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH

PROPAGATES TO THE EAST...AND ITS CONVERGENT SIDE IS LOCATED OVER

THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...AS SUCH A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION

TOTALS IS FORECAST. IN NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...EXPECT MAXIMA

OF 20-45MM...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. ELSEWHERE IN

THE GREATER ANTILLES...AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...EXPECT

GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.



SEASONAL CONVECTION IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS CLUSTERING

GENERALLY ALONG THE ITCZ/NET AND TROUGHS PROPAGATING IN THE

TRADES. THE LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN COLOMBIA...WHERE

ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST

CYCLE. OF RELEVANCE...EXPECT AN INCREASING TREND IN WESTERN

COLOMBIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...GIVEN INCREASING

ONSHORE/WESTERLY WINDS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A DISSIPATING EASTERLY

WAVE IN COLOMBIA.



CLARKE/LEDESMA/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)





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