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FXUS01 KWBC 140749

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

348 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024



Valid 12Z Sun Apr 14 2024 - 12Z Tue Apr 16 2024



...Severe thunderstorms possible over interior portions of the

Northeast on Sunday...



...Lingering locally heavy showers and moderate to heavy snow in

California Sunday...



...Intensifying storm system over the Plains to bring the threat

of severe weather Monday...



...Well above average temperatures across the central/eastern U.S;

Critical Risk of Fire Weather for the central/southern High Plains

Monday....



An upper-level shortwave/surface frontal system dropping southeast

through the Great Lakes into the Upper Ohio Valley/Interior

Northeast Sunday will bring a renewed chance for showers and

thunderstorms. Strong wind fields overlapping a southward moving

cold front from central Ohio east into Pennsylvania will lead to

some supercell structures and potentially a developing line of

more intense thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has issued

an Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather (level 3/5) for the threat of

some damaging wind gusts with these storms, along with a few

instances of large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Some locally

heavy downpours will also be possible, and wet antecedent

conditions through the terrain of the Appalachians could lead to

an isolated risk of some flash flooding across this region as

well. Storm chances should quickly diminish overnight Monday as

the frontal system pushes southeastward off the East Coast.



A deep upper-level low and associated surface frontal system over

the West will continue to progress eastward during the day Sunday.

A few areas of heightened precipitation will continue under the

influence of the low, particularly for portions of southern

Oregon/northern California and southern California. Moderate to

locally heavy lower elevation coastal/valley rain showers,

including some thunderstorms, are expected. Moist onshore/upslope

flow along the Transverse Ranges of southern California may lead

to a couple inches of rain on top of wet antecedent soils from

Saturday's rainfall, with an isolated threat for flooding. Higher

elevation mountain snow will also continue in California, with a

few more inches of accumulations forecast for the Sierra Nevada.

Precipiation chances will spread further inland with the system

with some lower elevation valley rain and higher elevation snow

possible for the northern Rockies and central Great Basin Sunday

evening, continuing into Monday for the Great Basin and spreading

into the central Rockies. Some moderate snow accumulations will be

possible for the higher mountain elevations here as well.



As the system spreads into the Plains, lee cyclogenesis will help

to deepen the surface low pressure system, with intensifying moist

southerly flow from the Gulf leading to widespread shower and

thunderstorm development by Monday evening. This will be most

likely for upslope portions of the northern/central High Plains

northwest of the low, along the arcing cold front south across the

central/southern Plains, and eastward along a warm front into the

Middle Mississippi Valley. Strong buoyancy and strengthening low

to upper-level flow will lead to the threat of severe

thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a broad

Slight Risk of Severe Weather (level 2/5) across the

central/Southern Plains for the threat of large hail, damaging

winds, and a few tornadoes. An Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) has been

included over western Oklahoma/northwest Texas where a locally

higher risk for very large hail exists. While storms will tend to

be rather progressive, especially with southern extent along the

cold front, the influx of higher moisture may be enough for some

locally heavier downpours and an attendant isolated risk for flash

flooding. The storms will continue to progress eastward into the

Midwest and Mississippi Valley overnight Monday and into the day

Tuesday, just beyond the current forecast period.



A broad area of well above average temperatures will continue

across the central/eastern U.S. Sunday and Monday as ridging leads

the approaching system over the West. Highs from the

central/southern Plains through the Mississippi Valley and into

the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast will be into the 80s. Some 90s will

even be possible Sunday over the central/southern High Plains.

Unfortunately, strengthening winds with the intensifying system

over the Plains on top of dry conditions behind a surface dryline

through the central/southern Plains has prompted a Critical Risk

of Fire Weather (level 2/3) from the Storm Prediction Center for

portions of the central/southern High Plains Monday. Conditions

will also be warm along the northern tier as well, with 60s and

70s from the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes. Cooler

temperatures will prevail over most of the West under the

influence of the upper-low and following cold frontal passage,

with 50s and 60s over California Sunday spreading further into the

Great Basin Monday. Highs in the Desert Southwest will generally

be in the 70s. Warmer temperatures will arc northwest into the

Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies Sunday, with highs in the 60s

and 70s, though cooler temperatures will also follow here Monday.



Putnam





Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php



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