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FXUS01 KWBC 141816

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

216 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024



Valid 00Z Mon Apr 15 2024 - 00Z Wed Apr 17 2024



...Severe thunderstorms possible over interior portions of the

Northeast early tonight...



...Intensifying storm system to bring the threat of severe weather

over the Plains on Monday followed by the Mississippi Valley on

Tuesday...



...Well above average temperatures across the Central/Eastern U.S;

Critical Risk of Fire Weather for the Central/Southern High Plains

Monday....





A low pressure system responsible for producing heavy snow over

the mountains of California on Saturday will move into the

Intermountain West tonight and bring with it some scattered

rain/snow showers. In the Ohio Valley/Northeast, scattered showers

and thunderstorms may turn severe early this evening as a low

pressure system moves across the region. The Storm Prediction

Center issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of Severe Thunderstorms

for eastern Ohio into western and northern Pennsylvania. Severe

storms storms will track southeastward across the region this

afternoon/evening with the potential for damaging winds being the

main threat. Severe hail and a couple of tornadoes are also

possible tonight.



An emerging area of low pressure over the Front Range/High Plains

on Monday will quickly intensify into a significant mid-latitude

cyclone by that evening. Showers and thunderstorms will develop

across the Great Plains on Monday afternoon. The severe weather

threat begins Monday night when scattered to severe thunderstorms

are likely to initiate across the Southern to Central Great

Plains, according to SPC. Thus, they have issued an Enhanced Risk

of severe storms in western Oklahoma and parts of northwest Texas,

due in part to the threat of large to very large hail, damaging

wind gusts and a few tornadoes. A broader Slight Risk (level 2/5)

is in effect across the Great Plains. Severe weather threats shift

eastward on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms expand into the

Mississippi Valley within the warm sector of the deep Great Plains

storm. SPC issued another Enhanced Risk area for portions of

southern Iowa into northern Missouri where scattered severe

thunderstorms are likely Tuesday into Tuesday night from the Corn

Belt to the Ark-La-Tex. Significant severe hail and tornadoes are

forecast over the Enhanced Risk area.



Meanwhile, as the Plains storm intensifies on Monday, so will

winds over the Central/Southern High Plains. Dry air will work

it's way into the region accompanied by strong winds. These

factors will contribute to a Critical Risk of Fire weather over

portions of eastern Colorado, western Kansas, western Texas and

eastern New Mexico. Dust storms are also possible over portions of

southern New Mexico where winds gusts will peak around 55-65 mph

on Monday. High Wind Warnings are also in effect for this area.

Red Flag Warnings are in effect for the Central/Southern High

Plains on Monday due to the fire threat. Strong southerly flow out

ahead of the Plains storm will promote well above average

temperatures across the Central and Eastern U.S. over the next

couple of days, but tomorrow in particular. High temperatures in

the 80s in the Northern/Central Plains will represent a 20-30

degree departure from normal on Monday. Temperatures moderate a

bit but remain above average in those areas on Tuesday. Highs will

be well below average over the Southwest and Intermountain West on

Monday.





Kebede





Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php



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